Brewers vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert breaks down Sunday's Brewers vs. Reds pick
Matt Zylbert
Sun, July 18, 8:23 AM EDT

Brewers vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Corbin Burnes (4-4, 2.36 ERA) vs. Sonny Gray (2-4, 3.19 ERA)

Brewers vs. Reds Prediction

Before landing on the injured list just prior to the All-Star break, Gray was in a real groove, going 10 starts without yielding more than three runs. The streak remains.

Thus, the question becomes how healthy will Gray be after not making a start in 11 days due to a strained rib cage muscle. My thinking is that he will be just dandy.

In his career, when Gray is going on six or more days of rest, he’s constructed a pretty 3.36 ERA in 40 such assignments, which is lower than when he’s following four or five days of rest. Evidently, this short time on the sidelines shouldn’t phase the nine-year veteran, especially facing an opponent he’s fared well with.

Gray’s made 11 starts against the Brewers, tuning a 2.56 ERA and 11.92 K/9 in those outings. So long as the righty is healthy, he’ll be in a position to succeed.

And then we have Burnes, fresh off his first Midsummer Classic appearance. Though it did not turn out as well as he would’ve hoped, at least the Saint Mary’s product was able to go two frames and pick up a couple of strikeouts. Pitchers uncommonly get more than one frame.

Regardless, there’s no denying that Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in the league, and if not for Jacob deGrom, would be in the Cy Young convo.

Leading up to the midseason intermission, the 26-year-old was building steam again, allowing only a single run in each of his last three starts, while compiling a 20-3 K/BB ratio. That’s been the mantra of Burnes’ game, ranking second among all starting pitchers in strikeout rate (13.14 K/9) — just behind only deGrom, of course.

Like his counterpart today, Burnes has had success opposite this foe, albeit in a much smaller sample size. Even so, it’s still worth tracking, and the fact that the Reds haven’t seen Burnes in nearly a full calendar year can boost his prospects.

MLB Picks & Predictions

Pick: UNDER 8 (-115)

MLB Leans

Marlins-Phillies Under 8 (Game 2)

Mariners-Angels Under 8.5

2020 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “52-42-6,” +4.47 units

Yesterday’s Result: Cubs-Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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