Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Predictions & Picks

Expert Jason Radowitz previews the Royals @ Brewers on Tuesday afternoon's MLB slate
Jason Radowitz
Tue, July 20, 10:26 AM EDT

Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Predictions & Picks

Tuesday July 20

4.10pm ET

American Family Field

View odds for Royals vs Brewers here.

Probable Pitchers:

  • Royals: Mike Minor 6-8, 5.67 ERA)
  • Brewers: Brett Anderson (3-4, 3.83 ERA)

Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Predictions

We’ve got some afternoon action between the Royals and Brewers on a Tuesday. We’ll take it!

It was first announced that Eric Lauer will be pitching tomorrow for the Brewers instead of today. That means Brett Anderson will get the call for today’s game.

On the other hand, it’ll be Mike Minor for the Royals. It’s been a rough go around for Minor as of late. He’s allowed multiple runs in every start but one in June and July and has given up 24 runs in his last four starts.

This will be Minor’s first start since the all-star break and he’s hoping he can produce in the second half of the season. But I tend to believe he’ll continue to struggle.

In his last 30 days, Minor has a 6.57 xFIP and is striking out just 11.6 percent of batters. He’s also walking 8.4 percent and inducing only 41.1 percent of ground balls. On top of that, he’s allowing a 43.2 percent hard contact percentage and is getting rocked by righties and lefties recently.

Righties are hitting a .419 wOBA in Minor’s last 69 plate appearances. That’s a very solid sample size and a .419 number is absolutely brutal. The lefty also struggles against other lefties. In his last 26 plate appearances against lefties, batters have a .435 wOBA against and a .174 ISO.

The Brewers are going to be the home team which means we will see pitchers bat but the Brewers lineup should have at least six righties in the lineup to face the left-handed pitcher.

The two lefties would be reliable ones in Kolten Wong and Christian Yelich. Both have a high wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days despite not showing off insane power. Yelich is still a huge home run threat against Minor.

On the season, Minor has allowed 107 hits in 106.1 innings along with 17 home runs and 33 walks. He’s watched 68 runs come across the board and 67 of them have been earned.

It’s truly been a bad season for Minor and the Brewers offense has a lineup that matches really well.

On the flip side, Brett Anderson is coming back from his all-star break and will get another start after going four innings while allowing three hits against the Mets back on July 7.

Anderson isn’t going to strikeout batters. Instead, batters will put the ball in play and he’ll rely on the defense behind him.

This is a guy who has pitched just four innings in basically a month. It’s hard to trust a pitcher that hasn’t thrown in the big leagues for a while and despite his experience in the league, he could come out rusty.

In June, Anderson allowed 19 hits in 15.2 innings with 11 runs and just 11 strikeouts. Lefties are hitting .293 on the season against Anderson with righties hitting .277.

Anderson’s been better against righties and the entire Royals lineup will be hitting from the right side with their projected lineup.

He can still be beat but it could be like a two-run, five-inning start for Anderson and then onto the bullpen. That wouldn’t be good if you’re looking for an over against Anderson.

So instead, we’ll roll with the Brewers on the team total in the first five innings. Three runs against Minor has happened a lot this season. The match-up looks good for it to happen again.

Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction: Brewers Over 2.5 TT F5 (-115) at DraftKings

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