San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction & Over/Under Pick

Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Exploring Muller reinsertion into Braves rotation
Matt Zylbert
Tue, July 20, 1:15 PM EDT

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction & Over/Under Pick

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves - View odds for the game here.

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.09 ERA) vs. Kyle Muller (1-2, 3.45 ERA)

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Over/Under Pick

Staying in the ATL despite last night’s PPD.

Does Darvish deserve the benefit of the doubt around his two most recent starts?

Of course he does, considering the immensely-talented right-hander landed on the injured list just prior to the All-Star break. That was clearly the reason he yielded a season-high six runs in just three innings of work — the shortest start he’s had since his first outing of the 2019 season — during his last turn. Healthy again now, expect Darvish back into form.

Let’s not forget this is an All-Star that enjoyed a very nice first half in his debut campaign with the Padres, painting a 3.09 ERA across 18 starts while accumulating a ridiculous good 125-24 K/BB ratio. As usual, his strikeout rate (10.71 K/9) ranks highly, currently tied with Clayton Kershaw for 15th among qualified starting pitchers.

There is no reason to fret about Darvish’s recent performance. He’s one of the best in the game throwing a baseball for plenty of reasons, and those pondering if any extra layoff for Darvish could negatively affect him, you’re wasting your time. The 35-year-old owns a career 3.34 ERA when going on six or more days of rest and is notching a whopping 11.4 K/9 under these conditions as well, a higher mark than when he’s following four or five days’ rest.

Meanwhile, we have also have Muller, someone making just his fourth Major League start — but he sure looked impressive enough in the first three that would seem to warrant trust in gambling.

In his aforementioned three assignments, the former second-round draft pick allowed just four runs total, and most impressively, logged 19 strikeouts within those 14.2 innings. Notably, he matched up against three proven successful pitchers (Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Sandy Alcantara) and hung with each.

That’s the type of potential Muller immediately brings upon his return to the big-league roster. And while San Diego — or Slam Diego, as they can often be called — sports one of the most dangerous lineups in the league, it’s one considerably less effective opposite left-handed pitching compared to right-handers.

The Padres sit in the bottom half of all 30 clubs in team OPS (.732) when facing southpaws and they’ve interestingly cranked out fewer homers with a lefty on the mound than all but two other teams.

A daunting task? Yes. But based on what he’s shown so far, and the type of competition he’s held his own with, Muller appears to be in position to keep surging. For an Under 9 bet, fine work will suffice.

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves PredictionUNDER 9 (-110)

Leans

Giants-Dodgers Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “52-42-7,” +4.47 units

Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Braves Under 9 (Postponed)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
0Betslip

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.

Bonus Bets$100 Olympics BonusOlympics: Bet $1 Win $100 If US Win A MedalCLAIM OFFER