MLB Picks: Braves vs. Phillies Prediction

Jason Radowitz gives us his picks for Thursday's NL East showdown between the Braves and Phillies
Jason Radowitz
Thu, July 22, 7:06 AM EDT

MLB Picks: Braves vs. Phillies Prediction

Date: Thursday, July 22

Time: 7:05pm ET

Where: Citizens Bank Park

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers:

  • Braves: Charlie Morton (8-3, 3.69 ERA)
  • Phillies: Matt Moore (0-1, 5.25 ERA)

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

View full odds for game here

Last night, the Phillies lost a three-game series to the Yankees in extra innings. The offense wasn’t clutch early and it wasn’t clutch late either.

That’s what’s going on with the Phillies right now. They’re a .500 ball club that still believes they can win the division.

They’ll face another ball club in the NL East in the Braves, who also think they can win the division at 46-48 on the season.

This is as big as it gets in July. If one of these teams can pull off a sweep, they’ll inch closer to their goals.

Matt Moore will take the hill for the Phillies. In his three starts in July, he hasn’t pitched past 4.1 innings but has allowed just six runs in 12.2 innings. He’s giving the Phillies a chance when he’s pitching. In those three outings, the Phillies have poured it on offensively and have won 29-7 in those three games combined with one game being a seven-inning game.

Moore has been a bit lucky though. He’s given up 14 hits and five walks in 12.2 innings and only given up six runs. He had high strikeouts against the Marlins but that won’t be the case against a Braves team that has done well limiting strikeouts recently against lefties.

Moore has been solid against left-handed batters but righties have found success. He’s allowing a wOBA of .342 to his last 54 righties and a .213 ISO. He’s also walking way more righties and really isn’t getting ground balls at a high rate from either side.

Meanwhile, the Braves offense projects well against lefties. The projected lineup without the pitcher, is hitting a .187 ISO and .382 wOBA. They’re also striking out just 14.6 percent of the time and walking 9.4 percent of the time.

These are small sample sizes. The average amount of plate appearances against lefties in the last 30 days for each player is 19 plate appearances. Still, these numbers are juicy.

On the other hand, Charlie Morton is expected to pitch for the Braves. He went 18.1 innings in June and allowed seven runs with two home runs and 13 hits. Morton has 22 strikeouts in 18.1 innings but also seven walks.

The Phillies lineup has more power potential with a .221 ISO against righties in the last 30 days. They’ve also got a .342 wOBA and strikeout only 17.3 percent of the time while walking 9.8 percent of the time.

Obviously, Morton is a much better righty than some of the guys this lineup has faced previously but you can’t rule this ball club out either, especially when they get to the bullpen.

The Phillies could score some runs later in this game but I like the Braves to score five or more runs in this game, as the road team.

This is a big series for both teams and you can expect the bats to be awake throughout the series.

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: Braves TT Over 4.5 @ -115

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