Jul 24, 9:20am | 4 min read

Yankess vs. Red Sox Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB

Matt Zylbert

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Matt Zylbert's MLB over/under picks for the day come to us from Yankees vs. Braves

ANALYSIS

Yankess vs. Red Sox Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET

TV: FS1

Probable pitchers: Jameson Taillon (5-4, 4.60 ERA) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (9-5, 3.57 ERA)

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction

Finally, Taillon has turned his season around, though this should come to the surprise of no one in the baseball world.

As I’ve written about a handful of times already (not to mention my long-lasting affection for him dating back to before even debuting), Taillon was severely out-pitching his overall stat line, as evidenced by an encouraging FIP and the hugest strikeout rate of his six years in the bigs.

The former Pittsburgh Pirate is maintaining that aforementioned new uptick in K’s, entering this assignment still striking out more than one batter per inning for the first time in his career.

Now Taillon is getting the results I expected of him in his first season with the Yankees, yielding two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. His most recent turn game opposite these Red Sox, whom he blanked across 5.1 really solid innings.

Earlier in the campaign, the lanky 6-foot-5 right-hander also fared well in his other date against Boston, and this being a matchup tangling with a slightly-reduced version of their lineup, his track record facing this foe is the nucleus for our bet.

Same deal with the other starter, Eovaldi. He’s been tremendous this season — hence why he was named an All-Star — and is drawing a foe whom he’s apparently felt very comfortable battling.

In his three previous meetings with the Bronx Bombers this season, Eovaldi went 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.96 WHIP while also notching 20 K’s across 18.2 innings. Notably, the under emerged in all three.

As a bonus, this, too, will be a downgraded lineup that Eovaldi is taking on. The Yankees are still missing key regulars and that figures to only give Eovaldi more of a boost this afternoon.