MLB Picks: Tigers vs. Royals Prediction

Sunday's MLB pick from Jason Radowitz comes our way from Tigers vs. Royals
Jason Radowitz
Sun, July 25, 8:12 AM EDT

MLB Picks: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction

Date: Sunday, July 25

Time: 2:10pm ET

Where: Kauffman Stadium

Tigers vs. Royals Probable Pitchers:

  • Tigers: Tarik Skubal (6-8, 4.18 ERA)
  • Royals: Daniel Lynch (0-2, 15.75 ERA)

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction

View full odds for game here

The Tigers offense has been ridiculous in their last 10 games. They’ve won seven of their last nine and have dominated against lefties in the last 30 days.

Now they’ll take on a Royals prospect in Daniel Lynch who hasn’t exactly thrived in the big leagues.

Lynch has thrown three starts and pitched eight innings. In those eight innings he has allowed 18 hits, 15 runs, one home run, five walks and just seven strikeouts.

On the season, Lynch has just 15.2 percent strikeouts and 10.9 percent walks. He’s also allowing players to have an average of .439 and he currently has a WHIP of 2.88. Despite his ERA sitting at 15.75, he still only has an FIP of 4.91.

Balls in play have found grass and he’s been a bit unlucky but he’s going to be facing a lineup that has insane numbers against lefties. Lynch hasn’t pitched in the MLB since 5/13 and that game was against the Tigers.

He allowed four runs on seven hits in 2.2 innings of work. He also had four strikeouts and no walks and didn’t give up a home run, but he was hit with plenty of hard contact.

The projected lineup for the Tigers has an ISO of .266 and wOBA of .418 in the last 30 days against lefties. They’re also striking out 19.7 percent of the time and walking nearly 10 percent of the time.

On top of that, they’re hitting a BABIP of .359 and only smacking ground balls at 37.4 percent. Hard contact should develop in the air for Detroit.

Lynch will go up against another young lefty in Tarik Skubal. Skubal has looked much better than Lynch after a shaky start in April. The Royals are hoping Lynch develops after a couple starts under his belt.

Skubal is 6-8 with a 4.18 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.33. But in the last 30 days,. He has an XFIP of 3.78 while striking out 24.7 percent. He’s also walking just 5.2 percent and inducing over 50 percent of ground balls.

Skubal will allow nearly 40 percent of hard contact but he’s been solid as of late. The only thing is that he’ll allow some power to righties.

In the Royals lineup, they’ll have seven righties in the lineup and many of those righties, like Salvador Perez, can hit for power against lefties.

In Kansas City, it’s going to be 88 degrees with humidity around 61 percent. Wind will barely be a factor but that’s not needed against Lynch, for example. Lynch doesn’t give up bombs, he gives up hard contact that develops into hit after hit.

Both teams in this game should find early success but I’m not going to bet against Skubal. Therefore, I’ll take the Tigers to score their team total for the full game as they’re the away team. We’re guaranteed nine innings with the Tigers today.

Tigers vs. Royals Prediction: Tigers TT Over 4.5 @ -140

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