Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert is back with his pick for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks on Tuesday
Matt Zylbert
Tue, July 27, 8:38 AM EDT

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Taylor Widener (1-0, 3.55 ERA) vs. Dane Dunning (3-7, 4.30 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Prediction

Among the most underrated rookies throughout baseball this season has to be Widener, arriving on the scene as a steady starter after getting his feet wet in the Major Leagues last year as a reliever.

The South Carolina product not only holds a solid 3.55 ERA, he’s also striking out a batter per inning while limiting opponents to a .242 average, this after opponents logged a .192 mark in his 2020 showcase.

Widener is here to stay, and in the meantime, he’s a wise investment to pursue before the linesmakers catch up on the right-hander’s legitimate talents.

It’s also interesting to note that thus far in his young career, Widener has fared significantly better in road outings. Away from Arizona, he’s constructed a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, whereas at home, he owns a less desirable 5.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Although he yielded a career-high five runs during his last turn, Widener also accumulated eight K’s, the most batters he’s struck out. That’s enough to tell me Widener can continue along in his rhythm.

He’ll be taking on another righty that also debuted a year ago, Dunning, who has mostly justified why he was the main get for Texas when they dealt away Lance Lynn last winter. Though his 1.42 WHIP isn’t pretty, this is someone that’s exhibiting he’s indeed going to succeed.

Dunning put up high strikeout numbers in the minors and has impressively been close to maintaining that as a big leaguer, notching 9.36 K/9 across 18 assignments.

He’ll also appreciate being in Arlington tonight, where he’s been far better compared to on the road. In nine home starts, Dunning is 3-2 with a cool 2.54 ERA, while outside of Globe Life Field, he’s 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA. Additionally, he’s allowed more than three earned runs in front of the hometown fans only one time.

Two teams on two similar paths to the bottom of their respective divisions about to tangle with quality starting pitching tonight. Expect that to define this contest. 

MLB Picks: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Prediction

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-108)

MLB Leans

Astros-Mariners Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “55-45-7,” +4.19 units

Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Twins Under 10 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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