MLB Picks: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction

Tuesday's Blue Jays vs. Red Sox pick from MLB handicapper Jason Radowitz
Jason Radowitz
Tue, July 27, 5:36 AM EDT

MLB Picks: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction

Date: Tuesday, July 27

Time: 7:10pm ET

Where: Fenway Park

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers:

  • Blue Jays: Robbie Ray (8-5, 3.12 ERA)
  • Red Sox: Garrett Richards (6-5, 4.99 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction

View full odds for game here

The Red Sox came from behind to beat the Blue Jays on Monday, 5-4 thanks to an Alex Verdugo two-run blast in the 8th inning. In that game, the Blue Jays had their chances but didn’t capitalize.

If they get chances tonight, they’ll capitalize.

The Blue Jays will get to hit against Garrett Richards for the 5th time this season. Richards has a 4.99 ERA and an FIP of 4.93. However, he’s been worse once the sticky stuff was eliminated from the game and has had some miserable outings.

On the year, he’s allowing a .334 BABIP and striking out just 17.6 percent of batters while walking just below 10 percent. 

Currently, his WHIP sits at 1.63 and with low strikeouts and a high BABIP, like I said, earlier, when the Blue Jays get chances, they’ll capitalize this time.

Richards has really struggled against righties in his last 67 plate appearances. He’s given up a .424 wOBA and an ISO of .306 against those 67 righties and hasn’t been able to strike out a high amount of batters from both sides of the plate.

The Blue Jays are expected to have seven righties in the lineup and as a team they project well against righties. In the last 30 days, the Blue Jays lineup has a .212 ISO, .353 wOBA and strike out just over 20 percent of the time.

Richards is capable of getting ground balls but the Blue Jays are only hitting 41.8 percent of ground balls in the last 30 days against righties to begin with. On the other hand, Richards is giving up 41.3 percent of hard contact and half the lineup is hitting the ball hard against righties in the last 30 days as well.

In his last outing, Richards went 5.2 innings and allowed four runs off three home runs. He struck out five and was actually able to induce 11 ground balls to six fly balls with five strikeouts. Even with the 11 ground balls and five strikeouts, he found a way to allow three home runs and four runs on the game.

His best performances still have mistakes in them.

On the year, against Toronto, Richards has a 5.64 ERA in 22.1 innings. The Blue Jays are hitting .299 against him this season with 14 runs and 26 hits in those 22.1 innings. He’s also walked 13 and only struck out 15 when facing the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays will get on base and have chances.

On the other hand, Robbie Ray will take the hill for the Blue Jays. He also struggled against the Red Sox in his last start allowing three home runs of his own in five innings.

Ray has struggled against the Red Sox just as badly as Richards has with a 5.73 ERA in 11 innings. In those 11 innings, Ray has allowed nine hits and seven runs with four home runs and four walks. Still, he’s produced 14 strikeouts and limited the team to a .220 average.

If Ray can limit the long ball, he’ll do a good enough job in this one.

With that, I’ll take the Blue Jays to score five runs and pay the juice to get it.

MLB Picks - Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Blue Jays Over 4.5 @ -160

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