Athletics vs. Padres Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert is back with his pick for A's vs. Padres on Wednesday
Matt Zylbert
Wed, July 28, 9:33 AM EDT

Athletics vs. Padres Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Probable pitchers: Sean Manaea (7-6, 3.16 ERA) vs. Blake Snell (4-3, 4.93 ERA)

Athletics vs. Padres Prediction

Very rarely does a game in pitcher-friendly San Diego that has Snell on the hill draw a total as high as 8.5, or even 8.

There’s plenty of reasoning for that. The former Cy Young Award winner is still one of the best around when he’s on his game, and that’s always the case at Petco Park.

Only one other pitcher in baseball — Jacob deGrom, of course — carries a lower mark at home than Snell’s sensational 1.43 ERA. He’s simply been lights out when taking the ball in front of Friars faithful, allowing two runs or fewer in all seven of his San Diego-based dates.

Even aside from question marks on the road, Snell is still the same upper echelon starter he’s always been, evidenced by the 11.65 K/9 he’s recording. That’s actually the second-highest strikeout rate he’s recorded, trailing only his Cy Young campaign from a couple of seasons ago.

Plus, Snell is actually coming off his best road outing (not to mention first quality start away from Petco) of the year, so this recent momentum figures to only boost the likelihood of a gem from the southpaw.

Then we have Manaea, in the midst of a career-best campaign. Possessing a 3.16 ERA and 128-28 K/BB ratio, the Throwin’ Samoan is registering his best marks ever all across the board. Additionally, his strikeout rate (9.87 K/9) is by far the highest it’s been since arriving in 2016.

He didn’t make the American League All-Star squad but there’s no denying that Manaea is finally transforming into a dependable All-Star caliber pitcher before our very eyes. And he isn’t slowing down.

Like Snell, the Oakland left-hander is coming off a breakthrough performance, one that arguably was the most dominant start in Manaea’s career (perhaps even more so than his no-hitter), racking up a career-best 13 punch-outs. And overall, he yielded three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his previous 12 assignments.

Being a daytime game following a night affair, there’s a good chance we’ll see some regulars sitting. As it is, San Diego actually has knocked out less taters against lefties than all but two teams.

The A’s, meanwhile, rank highly in this department but only three balls have left the yard off Snell when he’s doing his bidding from San Diego. Even if you can’t find 8.5, I still definitely suggest this bet.

MLB Picks: Athletics vs. Padres Prediction

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-114)

MLB Leans

Blue Jays-Red Sox (Game 2)

Braves-Mets Under 7.5

White Sox-Royals Under 10

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “55-46-7,” +3.11 units

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Rangers Under 8.5 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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