MLB Picks: Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction

Jason Radowitz gives us his pick for Wednesday's Phillies vs. Nationals game
Jason Radowitz
Wed, July 28, 7:39 AM EDT

MLB Picks: Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction

Date: Wednesday, July 28

Time: 7:05pm ET

Where: Citizens Bank Park

Phillies vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers:

  • Nationals: Patrick Corbin (6-9, 5.71 ERA)
  • Phillies: Zack Wheeler (8-5, 2.37 ERA)

Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction

View full odds for game here

The Phillies are acting like contenders while the Nationals are throwing in the towel for the season. Washington just lost Trea Turner due to COVID for the next 10 days and without his presence in the lineup, the Nationals will surely struggle.  

The Phillies can jump over .500 with a win against the Nationals with Zack Wheeler on the mound. They ought to be pumped for this.

Patrick Corbin will take the mound for the Nationals and he’s already 6-9 with a 5.71 ERA on the year.

In the last 30 days, Corbin has an XFIP of 5.25 with just 11.8 percent strikeouts and 7.8 percent walks. He’s able to get 44.3 percent of ground balls but that hard contact at 44.3 percent doesn’t help his case at all.

Corbin has also allowed his last 79 right-handed batters to hit a .378 wOBA and a .174 ISO. His strikeouts are low to righties and walks are over 10 percent. It’s likely that the Phillies have an entire lineup of righties outside Bryce Harper (and the pitcher’s spot.)

For the Phillies, the projected lineup has a .395 wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days. That’s due to a high walk rate of 16.7 percent and a strikeout rate of just 19.1 percent. They’re putting the ball in play and have a BABIP of .360 as a lineup.

The lineup also has some power with an ISO of .195 against lefties. Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, and Alec Bohm all have way above average ISO and wOBA numbers against lefties recently. J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper are also getting on base at an above average pace against lefties.

This lineup also has six of their eight batters hitting hard contact against lefties which is something that Corbin allows all too frequently.

Plenty of the lineup also has solid numbers against Corbin. Hoskins has a home run and four extra base hits in 20 at-bats against Corbin.

Harper has a .375 OBP with three extra base hits of his eight hits against Corbin from the left side.

Alec Bohm has an OPSS of 1.000 through seven plate appearances.

On the other hand, the Phillies will pitch Zack Wheeler who has looked incredible as of late. He’s got a 2.35 XFIP in his last 30 days with 27.5 percent strikeouts and 4.6 percent walks.

In those 30 days, he’s been able to induce grounders at 55.4 percent and limit hard contact to 31.1 percent. The only blunder for Wheeler are his walks to lefties which are a little bit high. But now he’s going to take on a Nationals lineup that won’t be with Trea Turner.

Against righties, the Nationals had Turner and Soto who were the only two consistent bats against righties. Now all they have is Soto. The Nationals lineup is so bad that Carter Kieboom is now their 5th hitter in the lineup.

With that, I like the Phillies to get the job done against the Nationals tonight. Let’s take the Phillies over 2.5 in the first five innings on the team total.

MLB Picks - Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Phillies F5 TT Over 2.5 @ -110

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