MLB Picks: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction

Jason Radowitz breaks down Orioles vs. Tigers and gives us his pick for Thursday
Jason Radowitz
Thu, July 29, 6:39 AM EDT

MLB Picks: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction

Date: Thursday, July 29

Time: 7:05pm ET

Where: Comerica Park

Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers Probable Pitchers:

  • Orioles: Alex Wells (1-0, 4.35 ERA)
  • Tigers: Casey Mize (5-5, 3.63 ERA)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction

View full odds for game here

The Orioles are depleted and have won just 35 games all year. On the other hand, the Tigers have been hot offensively within the last 30 days and are still playing average baseball.

The Orioles are pitching whoever they can at this point and will send Alexander Wells to the mound for this one. In his last start, he allowed five hits in 5.2 innings with three runs allowed and two home runs given up.

Wells was able to strike out seven batters against the Rays but before that outing, had just one strikeout in 4.2 innings against Houston and Toronto.

Therefore, I wouldn’t call him a high strikeout guy just yet. He’s got an XFIP of 5.02 with a walk rate of 10.5 percent. He’s also only getting 23.1 percent ground balls and allowing 46.2 percent hard contact.

As a lefty, he’ll likely face a ton of righties in the Tigers lineup. All but one batter should be a righty against Wells. Against 19 righties this year, he’s allowed a .450 wOBA and a .375 ISO. Wells is also only striking out 10.5 percent of batters and walked 15.8 percent of batters from the right side.

Against righties, Wells has really struggled which is why the Tigers lineup profiles well tonight.

Against lefties, the Tigers have a wOBA of .370 and strike out just 19.4 percent of the time. They only have four players that hit ground balls so we’ll see more batters in the lineup that can hit the ball in the air for hard contact against Wells including Eric Haase who has a .625 ISO and .563 wOBA in his last 27 plate appearances against lefties.

Wells could be the worst lefty he’ll face this season. Don’t let his ERA of 4.35 fool you. Instead, he has an FIP of 5.87, an XFIP of 5.77 and a SIERA of 5.70 on the season while allowing 1.74 home runs per nine innings.

On the other hand, the Tigers will pitch Casey Mize who has also been a bit lucky. On the year he has a 3.63 ERA but a 4.59 FIP which is about a one point difference.

Still, as of late, Mize has been solid with an XFIP of 4.07 and while he’s only striking out 22.6 percent of batters, he’s also walking just 3.2 percent of batters. Mize is also inducing 52.2 percent ground balls but allowing 52.2 percent hard contact. That’s a bit concerning but hard ground balls on the ground aren’t always the worst thing when there’s guys on base.

Against lefties, Mize has allowed a .404 wOBA and .300 ISO in his last 31 plate appearances against them. However, the Orioles don’t have many lefties to throw in the lineup with only Cedric Mullins being the one consistent lefty in the lineup.

So if you’re looking to back the Orioles, maybe a Mullins player prop would be the way to go on his hits. I wouldn’t do anything more.

The Tigers erupted for 17 runs against the Twins yesterday and now come home against the Orioles. I can’t guarantee 17 runs but I can promise that you’re getting a really good matchup for the Tigers against Wells and the Orioles bullpen.

However, because of the Tigers outburst, you’re going to need six runs at a reasonable price to cash a ticket for the Tigers team total.

Instead, we’ll just match up all the righties against the lefty in the first five innings. The Tigers would need three runs to cash their ticket against the Orioles in the first five innings.

It’s very doable.

MLB Picks - Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction: Tigers F5 TT Over 2.5 @ -130

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