Jul 30, 11:18am | 4 min read

Mariners vs. Rangers Predictions: MLB Over/Under Picks

MLB

Matt Zylbert

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Matt Zylbert gives us his Mariners vs. Rangers picks

ANALYSIS

Mariners vs. Rangers Predictions: MLB Over/Under Picks

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Logan Gilbert (4-2, 3.81 ERA) vs. Kolby Allard (2-8, 4.71 ERA)

Mariners vs. Rangers Predictions

Life after Joey Gallo finally begins in Arlington following at least two years of conversation surrounding the star slugger being dealt at one point in the near future.

The future is now for Texas after finally dealing the massive Gallo to New York for a boatload of prospects. In the present day, though, the batting order looks bleak.

As it is, the Rangers have endured some historic lows since the All-Star break, scoring just 22 runs in 12 games during this current span. That stretch also includes being the victim of three straight shutouts for the first time in team history.

And that was with Gallo in the lineup. Now, he’s been sent off to greener pastures and that can only lead to more doom for a club that’s going through a real ugly dry spell.

The right opposing starting pitcher can help ensure this and such will be the case tonight with the rookie sensation Gilbert.

In his lone start against Texas earlier this month, the former first-round pick was marvelous, pitching into the sixth and yielding three runs (two earned) while striking out six. That’s how he’s looked overall lately, putting up a 3.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 44-6 K/BB ratio across his last seven outings. He’s been very impressive.

So, the Rangers appear to be in for another long evening at the plate. Even their new face of the offense, Adolis Garcia, is in his worst slump of the season, being 5-for-39 (.128) with 11 strikeouts, no home runs and no runs driven in since the Midsummer Classic.

But can we trust the other starter to not get rocked while involved in a relatively low total? The answer is an emphatic yes.

Ponder this first: Why would the linesmakers label a contest with an over/under of 8 featuring Allard as one of the two probables? Because — like me — they know Allard is solid despite his 4.71 ERA.

That’s mostly the product of back-to-back uncharacteristic off outings anyway coming into this assignment. Prior to his last two starts, Allard had a very desirable 3.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the campaign.

Allard was hounded for 12 runs in those two aforementioned meetings, but notably, those both took place on the road. Here, the fourth-year southpaw gets to work from home, where he’s been far better ever since being acquired via trade from the Braves a couple of years ago.

In fact, Allard’s lifetime 4.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at Globe Life Field are both considerably lower than when pitching away from there (5.92 ERA, 1.49 WHIP).

Making this a fine spot for Allard to bounce back is that he’ll also be taking on one of the worst teams in baseball opposite left-handers. Last year, the Mariners ranked dead last in team OPS (.609) and batting average (.190) with a lefty on the hill. In 2021, they once again sit below everyone else in average (.218), while their .676 OPS places them 26th.

Allard was successful in two encounters (one start) opposite Seattle earlier this season. Simply something close to that production will help keep this low scoring.