MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
Date: Friday, July 30
Time: 9:10pm ET
Where: Chase Field
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers:
- Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 2.38 ERA)
- Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (1-5, 4.80 ERA)
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
All season long we’ve been waiting for Zac Gallen to show flashes of last season’s performance. So far, it just hasn’t happened.
Gallen is currently 1-5 with a 4.80 ERA on the season and coming off a game against the Cubs where he allowed seven runs off six hits with two home runs and three walks.
It took him 84 pitches to get through four innings in that game and he currently has an 8.49 ERA in July.
For Gallen, the strikeouts have been high enough but he’s walking 13.8 percent of batters and allowing nearly 40 percent of hard contact in the last 30 days. Against his last 31 righties, Gallen has also allowed a .461 wOBA and an ISO of .292.
Again, walks are high and he’s walked 16.1 percent of righties along with 11.1 percent of lefties.
The Dodgers are going to be buyers at the deadline. They’ve already traded for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer and could have more up their sleeve before the deadline is over.
But one thing we know for sure is that the Dodgers aren’t getting rid of anyone on the major league roster tonight. The lineup you see is the lineup you get.
And it’s a good one.
The Dodgers have a combined wOBA of .217 with an ISO of .354 against righties in the last 30 days. Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Will Smith and AJ Pollock have all looked really good at the plate in the last 30 days and have plenty of power against righties.
Of those five mentioned, four are righties and that’s where Gallen has struggled; against righties.
The Dodgers have also been patient at the plate. They’ve walked 12 percent of the time and that bodes well going up against Gallen who is walking 13.8 percent of batters in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Tony Gonsolin will get the start for the Dodgers. He’s 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA and has allowed three or less runs in every start in July. Through 21 innings, Gonsolin has given up just 15 hits and five runs, however, the walks are high at 11.
Just like Gallen, Gonsolin has a high XFIP in the last 30 days nearing 5 and is walking over 12 percent of batters while striking out 26.1 percent of batters. The difference between the two is that the Diamondbacks lineup does not profile well against righties.
The Diamondbacks just traded Eduardo Escobar and now have a lineup that combines for a .152 ISO and .294 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days. They’re striking out 23.1 percent of the time and walking under nine percent of the time.
You can’t rely on this Diamondbacks offense against Gallen but with all of the Dodgers news breaking, you know for sure that this Dodgers lineup will have some adrenaline going into this game.
The Dodgers are also just 24-27 against teams above .500. They’re feasting on bad teams this year and they’ve got more opportunity against the 32-71 Diamondbacks.
Let’s roll with the Dodgers to take care of business and score over 4.5 runs in tonight’s game, on the road.
MLB Picks - Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Dodgers TT Over 4.5 @ -140
Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.