Brewers vs. Braves Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Matt Zylbert's MLB pick for Saturday, coming to us from Brewers vs. Braves
Matt Zylbert
Sat, July 31, 8:36 AM EDT

Brewers vs. Braves Prediction: MLB Over/Under Picks

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Brandon Woodruff (7-5, 2.14 ERA) vs. Kyle Muller (2-3, 2.55 ERA)

Brewers vs. Braves Prediction

Wait a minute, why would this game draw a higher total than last night’s series opener that consisted of Corbin Burnes and Touki Toussaint exchanging blows?

Woodruff, of course, can be considered equal to his co-ace teammate Burnes. But labeling Muller a half-run worse than Toussaint? That just doesn’t seem correct.

Especially take into account that the rookie southpaw is actually still perfect with cashing ‘under’ bets in his five starts and the linesmakers’ decision is baffling.

We’ll try to capitalize on it nonetheless (and hopefully you get it at 9 before the total potentially drops), leaning on more quality pitching from two steady starters.

A gem is what’s always expected of Woodruff, who, remember, is a legitimate contender for this year’s Cy Young honors (given the injury status of Jacob deGrom). The fifth-year Milwaukee hurler has been so consistent that he’s allowed more than three runs in a start only twice in 20 tries!

In the process, Woodruff is maintaining his usual tremendous strikeout rate (10.4 K/9) while registering the second-lowest batting average against (.170) among all qualified Major League starting pitchers.

For an over/under this high, Woodruff is one of those starters that can be very detrimental in churning out a low score.

As mentioned, Muller’s done just that in each of his assignments, albeit in a still-small sample size. Even so, the former first round draft pick appears polished.

Muller has been terrific thus far, pitching into the fifth or deeper in all of his starts and yielding no more than three runs each time out. Notably, he’s been tagged for only one long ball in his 24.2 Major League innings and that can be vital projecting a Brewers team that’s reliant on home runs.

Despite their current first-place standing in the NL Central, the Brew Crew offense really isn’t that intimidating — not with the league’s second-lowest team batting average (.229) and their penchant for racking up K’s at the dish, having struck out more than all but one team in the bigs.

The Brewers punch out at a high rate opposite lefties and that could certainly help pave the way for another solid outing from Muller. Getting such a performance to pair with Woodruff’s work is the story.

MLB Picks: Brewers vs. Braves Prediction

Pick: UNDER 9 (-113)

MLB Leans

Orioles-Tigers Under 9.5

Mariners-Rangers Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “56-48-7,” +1.92 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-Rangers Under 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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