Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction & Pick
Date: Tuesday, August 3
Time: 10:10pm ET
Where: Dodger Stadium
Astros Vs. Dodgers Probable Pitchers:
- Astros: Lance McCullers Jr. (8-2, 3.23 ERA, 115 K's)
- Dodgers: Walker Buehler (11-1, 2.19 ERA, 139 K's)
The dog days of summer are providing us with a clash between two of MLB's best. The Houston Astros have themselves with the best record in the AL (64-42) as the Dodgers are battling to take back the NL West from the San Francisco Giants. Currently 3.5 games back, the Dodgers are looking to extend their franchise-record of eight straight NL West titles.
The Astros and Dodgers are first and second in MLB in run differential to this point. Dodgers: +165 Astros: +149
The Astros and Dodgers met back in May in Houston, splitting the series.
The Dodgers are 33-18 at home this season. The Astros have gone 30-22 on the road. Over the last 10 games the Dodgers are 5-5, .261 BA, 2.82 ERA. The last 10 for the Astros they are 6-4, .268 BA, 4.66 ERA.
The Dodgers faithful will be banging their trash cans tonight. In this potential World Series matchup, we have two of baseball's hottest pitchers on the mound. With the news last week of Jacob DeGrom's injury setback, we saw Walker Buehler move to be the favorite for the NL Cy Young Award (+330). Buehler has been lights out this season and particularly at home, pitching to a 6-1 record and a 2.21 ERA in 12 starts. With a strong showing tonight versus one of the best lineups in MLB, Buehler would cement himself even further as the favorite to win Cy Young, and this line of +330 will move.
McCullers Jr. has pitched to a 6-0 record on the road, striking out at least seven batters in each of his eight road starts. He has been on a strikeout tear with at least 8 K's in his last five starts. The Dodgers lineup has some experience facing McCullers. Mookie Betts, with the most at-bats, is 4 for 9 with three walks. Another notable name is A.J. Pollock (.520 BA last seven games), who has been red hot is 2 for 3 with a HR.
The Dodgers made the biggest move at the trade deadline, acquiring Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Although Turner is still unavailable to join the Dodgers due to being in the MLB protocol after testing positive for Covid-19; They did get their superstar Mookie Betts back in the lineup Sunday returning from injury.
The Dodgers and Astros are second and third in weighted OBA (wOBA) in all of MLB versus RH pitching. The Dodgers also showing the second highest BB percentage in MLB
The largest difference we can find in this matchup is with the bullpens. The Astros surprisingly have an average pen with the 15th highest ERA with an ERA of 4.11. They made a couple of moves at the deadline looking to improve the relief pitching, acquiring closer Kendall Graveman from Seattle, but that may not be the difference they will need against this relentless Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers have the 5th lowest bullpen ERA at 3.59; even with Kenley Jansen's recent struggles, the pen has been strong.
Expecting the Dodgers lineup to work McCullers pitch count and get him out of the game and into the Astros mediocre bullpen, we can roll with the Dodgers over 4.5 on the team total.