Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Over/Under Bet
Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Mahle can go for miles and miles
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Kenta Maeda (4-4, 4.40 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (8-3, 3.71 ERA)
Is it time to crown Mahle ace of the staff?
Within a pitching rotation that consists of veteran stalwarts Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, it’s Mahle that has emerged as the best Reds starting pitcher at this juncture.
The fifth-year right-hander is yet to make a Midsummer Classic appearance but he’s certainly displayed an All-Star worthy showcase thus far, this after posting career-best marks in ERA (3.59), WHIP (1.15), batting average against (.198) and strikeout rate (11.33 K/9) a season ago.
Mahle has proved that was no fluke or any small-sample size fortune, as he enters tonight’s 22nd start of the campaign possessing similar numbers. The 10.72 K/9 he’s posting even place him in the top 10 among all Major League starting pitchers.
If not for one really bad outing against the Giants, Mahle would be sitting with a much dandier 3.20 ERA on the campaign.
Let’s give the 26-year-old his due — since he’s really exhibited strong potential since his first full year of 2018 — and entrust him for another quality display here. He’s getting the Twins at a more opportune tune than previously, considering they haven’t been as consistent offensively after dealing away Nelson Cruz. If you remove that wild 17-14 affair, Minnesota is averaging just 3.4 runs per game in nine contests following the departure of Cruz.
Additionally, Mahle has fared well when taking on this interleague opponent. In three lifetime meetings, he punched out a tasty 13.50 K/9 while etching a 3.55 ERA.
Then we have the road starter, Maeda, who has been one of the most quieter resurgences around. The former Los Angeles Dodger was a culprit in the club’s slow start, enduring early-season struggles that ultimately led him to eating a 5.56 ERA through the first three months.
July was a completely different story, however. Maeda looked like the upper-rotation pitcher the Twins inked to a deal going into last year, engineering a sparkling 2.15 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and .176 BAA last month across five assignments.
He also registered 11.05 K/9, a real sign the 33-year-old has settled into a comfortable groove. When Maeda is going this impressive, he’s worth trusting, let alone in a bet simply to not get rocked.
Pick: UNDER 9 (-110)
Orioles-Yankees Over 10
Mets-Marlins Under (if Braxton Garrett starts)
Astros-Dodgers Under 8.5
2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “57-49-8,” +1.83 units
Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Diamondbacks Under 9.5 (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit