Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Pick

MLB handicapper Jason Radowitz gives us his Twins vs. Reds prediction for Wednesday. Don't miss his pick for this afternoon as Minnesota and Cincinnati face off.
Jason Radowitz
Wed, August 4, 7:25 AM EDT

Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Pick

Date: Wednesday, August 4

Time: 12:35pm ET

Where: Great American Ball Park

Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds Probable Pitchers:

  • Twins: Charlie Barnes (0-1, 1.93 ERA)
  • Reds: Luis Castillo (5-10, 4.22 ERA)

Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

View full odds for game here

The Reds are currently 56-51 on the season and will be trying to fight their way back into playoff contention against the Twins, who were sellers at the deadline.

Because the Twins sold off, they’ll have to ostart Charlie Barnes, who has one career start in the MLB. Although he finished with a 1.93 ERA, allowing one run, the analytics say he was lucky to escape some damage.

Barnes finished his first career game against the Tigers throwing 4.2 innings while allowing four hits and one home run. He also walked just one but struck out only one batter as well. Barnes threw in this one due to it being one of the two games in the doubleheader.

Barnes induced eight grounders and allowed nine fly balls and took the loss after allowing just one run.

His xFIP in that game was a 5.78 and he, again, struck out just 5.3 percent of batters that he faced. The Tigers were all right-handed against the lefty and through 19 plate appearances, the righties had an ISO of .222 with a wOBA of .293.

The Reds offense has crushed lefties as of late and Barnes should be no different. The projected lineup has an ISO of .241 with a wOBA of .419. They’re also striking out just 20.5 percent of the time and walk 11.4 percent of the time in the last 30 days.

The Reds have now inserted Kyle Farmer into the three spot as they await Nick Castellanos’ return from the injured list due to a wrist injury. Farmer has crushed lefties with a .588 ISO and wOBA of .668 through his last 17 plate appearances.

On the other hand, Luis Castillo will take the mound for the Reds. He’s 5-10 on the season but that shouldn’t matter when breaking down a pitcher and what they bring to the table.

In July, Castillo allowed three runs or less in every start while going at least five innings in every start. He also struck out eight or more batters in his last three starts and limited home runs to just three in the entire month through six starts.

Castillo also induced 53 ground balls to 40 fly balls and looked like himself in July, holding it down for a 2.15 ERA.

There are a bunch of players that have hit righties well recently in the Twins lineup but it’s hard to trust anyone against Castillo who has a 3.79 xFIP in his last 30 days along with 27.6 percent strikeouts.

The Twins have an ISO of .257 with a wOBA of .366 with their projected lineup in today’s game. They’re also only hitting 31.7 percent of ground balls while Castillo is getting 59.2 percent of ground balls in the last 30 days from the opposition.

It’s hard to know which side has the advantage in this spot so that’s why I’ll just worry about the Reds and their bats against Barnes.

The Reds without Castellanos aren't the best but Kyle Farmer has been hitting like Castallenos as of late at the three spot.

Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Reds F5 TT Over 3 @ -115

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