Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Over/Under Bet

Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction and pick from MLB expert Matt Zylbert ahead of Friday's game
Adam King
Fri, August 6, 11:53 AM EDT

Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Over/Under Bet

Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Mike Minor (8-9, 5.31 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (9-6, 3.51 ERA)

Royals vs. Cardinals Prediction

There’s no better time tailing Wainwright for a quality performance than in a home assignment, and fortunately, that’s where he’ll be to commence this interleague set.

Throughout his career, the veteran righty simply referred to as Waino carries some of the most distinct home-and-road splits you’ll find around. In fact, his ERA (2.86) and WHIP (1.15) at Busch Stadium far surpass what he’s posted on the road (4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), and that’s a track record consisting of 17 big-league years.

Expectedly, this trend has rung true in 2021, with Wainwright notching an ERA (2.79) that is more than two runs lower than when pitching away from St. Louis (4.93). Same with his 0.97 WHIP besting the 1.38 WHIP he has outside of Busch.

Wainwright appears to be in rhythm right now, having clocked out with three straight starts going seven innings apiece. That’s notable because it’s the first time the soon-to-be 40-year-old has accomplished this in nearly a full calendar year. Making this more tempting, he’s drawing an opponent he’s fared well with.

Then we have Minor, another vet in a groove at the moment. Similar to his counterpart tonight, he, too, is in the midst of some extensive fine pitching that we haven’t often seen lately. The 12th-year southpaw has registered at least six innings in three consecutive outings entering this assignment, which is only the second time he’s done that this season.

Though the Cardinals lineup isn’t easy to contend with, they are a little more gentler when going up opposite a left-hander, ranking 24th in the Majors in both team OPS (.704) and batting average (.235) in that department. Minor gets a boost here.

Somewhat minimizing the Cards at the plate would do wonders scratching out a low final score. Waino will provide the rest.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-114)

Leans

White Sox-Cubs Under 9

Tigers-Indians Under 9.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “58-51-8,” +0.58 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Pirates-Reds Under 9.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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