San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Pick
Date: Friday, August 6
Time: 8:10 PM ET
Where: American Family Field
Giants vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers
- Giants: Logan Webb (5-3, 3.33 ERA, 73 K’s)
- Brewers: Corbin Burnes (6-4, 2.46 ERA, 152 K’s)
Two of the best MLB teams in 2021 square off tonight as we kick off the weekend. The San Francisco Giants (69-40, first in the NL West) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (65-44, first in the NL Central). First place in their respective divisions both sides have been a big surprise to this point in the season.
Moneyline Odds: Brewers -145 Giants +135
Both sides have had fantastic pitching and timely hitting all season. They are ranked second and third in team ERA’s. The Giants at third overall with a 3.37 ERA. The Brewers, second in MLB in this category, currently have a 3.33 ERA trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers who lead the league with a 3.20 team ERA. A strength of each side is their bullpens rank in the top eight in MLB in ERA, The Giants 3rd, Brewers 8th.
The Brewers are 31-25 on their home turf.
The Giants have gone 34-23 on the road.
In their last ten games the Brewers and Giants are both 7-3.
As a home favorite the Brewers are 26-21 while the Giants as a road dog have managed an impressive 19-11 record.
The over/under for tonight’s matchup currently stands at 8 runs after opening at 7.5.
The Brewers are sending ace Corbin Burnes to the mound tonight. Burnes is currently in the NL Cy Young conversation listed fifth at +550 to win the award. He faces a Giants offense that is quietly tied for the league lead in homeruns with 164 and third in OPS. Despite being tied for the most homers, the Giants do not have a single player with more than 18 on the season, showing how balanced their lineup is.
These two team’s strikeout quite a bit. The Brewers strikeout the sixth most and the Giants the 7th in MLB. Since July, the Giants have struck out the second most times against right-handed pitching, 204 times in 817 plate appearances and the third most since the start of the season. Burnes is tied for the seventh most strikeouts by any pitcher with 152 on the season. His strikeout prop is listed at 7.5 (-110).
Putting aside Burnes’ most recent start in Atlanta where he managed to go just 4 innings surrendering 5 runs, he has been lights out over the last month. The Giants have relied on the homerun ball and Burnes is solid at keeping his opponents in the park. He has allowed just four homeruns all season.
The Giants will have Logan Webb on the mound tonight. In games he has started the Giants are 12-3 with the most recent loss coming all the way back on May 5th. Compared to his 1.85 ERA at home, Webb has an inflated 4.62 ERA on the road. Although, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start since that May 5th game back in Colorado. Webb has gone eight straight starts without allowing more than two runs to cross the plate.
Tough to find an edge in this matchup but with Corbin Burnes on the mound and Logan Webb’s struggles on the road, we will back the Milwaukee Brewers in the first five innings. We can expect the Brewers to push a run or two across the plate and keep the Giants heavy sluggers at bay early on in this one.