New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Pick
Date: Saturday, August 7
Time: 4:05pm ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Probable Pitchers
- Phillies: Ranger Suarez (5-3, 1.04 ERA)
- Mets: Tylor Megill (1-1, 2.68 ERA)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
If you’re a Phillies fan, Game 1 of this Mets-Phillies series on Friday night was probably the best Phillies game you’ve watched in quite some time. Newly acquired starting pitcher Kyle Gibson went six innings on the mound and gave up just one run, Citizens Bank Park was rocking and Bryce Harper responded to “MVP” chants in the eighth inning by murdering a baseball, 442 feet to dead center for a homer that gave his team two huge insurance runs.
If you’re a Mets fan, Friday night was more of the same. The Mets struggled on offense, more specifically with runners in scoring positon. In the top of the fourth, the Mets had bases loaded with no outs and it turned into 0 runs. Marcus Stroman pitched well, but it wasn’t enough as his offense provided almost no run support.
Saturday’s mid-afternoon matchup is another huge one. The Phillies now lead the NL East by a half game and have won six straight. The Braves are just a half game behind the Mets for second place, and if New York is going to stay competitive they have to win games while they recover from injuries to Francisco Lindor and Jacob deGrom.
Saturday’s pitching matchup is another interesting one. Ranger Suarez takes the mound for the Phillies. He’s recently moved to the starting rotation after a career in the bullpen. In his first start of the year, Suarez went three innings and allowed no runs against the Nationals. Phillies manager Joe Girardi only let him throw 33 pitches, but you can assume he gets more than that today as they try to build up his arm strength for a starting role.
The Mets send out Tylor Megill. Megill is a rookie and has been fantastic for New York this season, but he’s coming off his first rough start of the year against the Marlins on August 2. Megill went five innings, allowing five runs, four of which were earned, and striking out four. I don’t expect to see that Tylor Megill on Saturday.
So how will I play this one? I do expect that if the Phillies are going to drop a game in this series, this is the one. They’re going to have to rely a lot on their bullpen with Suarez on the mound, and that’s been a recipe for disaster for this team. But, I’m not comfortable betting on this Mets team to win a game right now.
Instead, I’m going to take under 4.5 runs in the first five innings. Megill is really good and Suarez should get at least four innings today. The Phillies offense scores runs, but it’s been late in games when their offense has exploded.
The first four and a half innings of Friday’s game produced just two runs. I love this F5 total, especially if Rhys Hoskins is forced to miss another game.
I also have a few props I like after we hit Bryce Harper’s total base prop last night with his home run in the 8th inning.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Under 4.5 F5 @ +112
Bonus Mets vs. Phillies Prop Picks
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases @ +105
Ranger Suarez Under 3.5 Hits Allowed @ -160