Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction & Over/Under Bet
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (Game 1)
First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Freddy Peralta (8-3, 2.21 ERA) vs. Justin Steele (2-0, 2.03 ERA)
Sticking with the Peralta game after last night’s contest got rained out at Wrigley.
This particular encounter will have a much different spin from what was slated for the original series opener. One, the Cubs will have a different starting pitcher commencing things in the form of Steele, making his first career Major League start.
And of course, this will be played under doubleheader rules, thus meaning this is a seven-inning affair. Even despite these huge changes, I actually think there’s more of an edge compared to previously.
We pretty much know what we’re going to get from Peralta. The first-time All-Star continues to throw spectacularly since the Midsummer Classic and as I detailed yesterday, he’s had Chicago in the palm of his hand this year. In four meetings with the Cubbies, Peralta constructed a 2.14 ERA and 33 K’s across 21 stellar innings.
And obviously, now this is an iteration of the Cubs offense that has to be considered one of the worst in baseball. Welcome to regular playing time, Andrew Romine, Frank Schwindel, Rafael Ortega and Greg Deichmann. Really dead bats.
Here’s the twist of this bet, though, as it will also involve a first-time starter in the big leagues. However, at least it’s someone with experience at this level — and a guy that’s fared well in such action.
Steele actually made his MLB debut the first month of the season, doing so as a reliever, and he couldn’t have been more impressive. The 26-year-old southpaw had a 2.03 ERA in 11 appearances, and only one of those outings did Steele even allow a single earned run to the opponent.
After that, the former fifth-round draft pick was stretched out in Triple-A, where he continued to churn out fabulous work. In fact, Steele had a microscopic 1.32 ERA in his nine minor league games (five starts). He also averaged at least a strikeout per inning for each assignment.
Steele seems ready for this task. Fortunately, with Christian Yelich and Omar Narvaez being rested the first game, he’s actually drawing a less-intimidating lineup than Alec Mills was set to square off with last night. Having registered five innings his last two stats at Iowa, Steele will be capable of covering most of the game. Peralta carries the rest.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-134)
Tigers-Orioles Under 10
Rangers-Mariners Under 8
2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “60-52-8,” +1.5 units
Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Cubs Under 9 (Postponed)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit