Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres Predictions & Over/Under Bet
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (6-10, 3.70 ERA) vs. Ryan Weathers (4-4, 4.26 ERA)
Alcantara endured an extremely rare pounding his last time out, though in his defense, that came at the perennial hitter’s paradise known as Coors Field.
Surely there won’t be an encore, right?
I know there won’t be. The aforementioned outing in Colorado saw Alcantara get tagged for a career-worst 10 runs — only the second time he’s allowed more than four earned runs in a start this year — as the brilliant young right-hander failed to escape the fourth.
However, nothing close to that performance figures to repeat itself. Alcantara typically bounces back from unusual outings and he’ll be extra eager to get to the mound after his worst showing ever as a Major League pitcher.
San Diego isn’t the ideal opponent to get back on track but remember, this will be a lineup without Fernando Tatis Jr. (shoulder), not to mention perhaps other key regulars, being a getaway-day game following a nighttime affair. So, this will be the Padres notably less than full strength.
And of course, like I’ve detailed countless times before, always note when Alcantara’s next turn comes during the afternoon. For his career, the 25-year-old owns a splendid 2.38 ERA in 26 daytime games (23 starts), easily besting the 4.45 ERA he’s posted across 50 games (45 starts) at night. Unexpectedly, this distinct trend has held true in 2021, with Alcantara pitching to the tune of a 1.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his nine daytime assignments.
Then we have another youngster in Weathers as the other starter in this series finale. The rookie southpaw has provided mostly quality work in his first campaign.
Well, that was definitely true up until his last two starts. Weather had performed mostly as a swingman prior to recently being moved on the rotation. While he’s slogged a bit lately, I envision the former first-round draft pick still settling back in.
He’ll be getting a very favorable matchup to help quell his recent struggles. The Marlins lost some of their sluggers at the trade deadline and what’s left is one of the weakest offenses going today. And that was already so before the deadline.
Furthermore, Miami really has difficulties when taking on left-handed pitching. The club’s .658 OPS against lefties is third-worst among all MLB teams, while their .230 batting average is last in the league.
Weathers doesn’t even have to go that deep into the ballgame, given he has an outstanding bullpen waiting in the wings.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-108)
Blue Jays-Angels Under 9.5
2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “61-52-8,” +2.5 units
Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Cubs Under 7.5 - Game 1 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit