Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Predictions & Betting Pick
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Predictions & Pick
Date: Thursday, August 12
Time: 5:10pm ET
Where: Truist Park
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Probable Pitchers
- Reds: Vladimir Gutierrez (7-3, 4.15 ERA)
- Braves: Kyle Muller (2-3, 2.88 ERA)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
With last night’s walk-off win, the Braves are in first place in the NL East. You’d think they’ll want to stay at the top at least a couple games longer!
The Reds will start Vladimir Gutierrez who is 7-3 on the season with a 4.15 ERA. Gutierrez has been good enough to keep Reds in games but hasn’t been all that, despite his solid record.
In his last 30 days, Gutierrez has a 6.08 xFIP along with 16.7 percent strikeouts and 8.3 percent walks. He’s not getting a high amount of grounders and is giving up 40.8 percent hard contact.
To lefties, he’s getting rocked with a .399 wOBA and .348 ISO. Righties have a .333 wOBA and .171 ISO, which is still above the average. He’s walking both sides over 8 percent of the time and has only been able to strike out lefties 12 percent of the time in his last 50 plate appearances.
The Braves have a rejuvenated lineup. A lineup that was once all right-handed now has some left-handed pop.
Ozzie Albies will lead off, as a lefty, and they’ll also have Freddie Freeman, Joc Pederson and Stephen Vogt in the lineup against Gutierrez. That’s four lefties in the lineup against the right-hander and let’s not forget, Jorge Soler, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Adam Duvall have all crushed right-handed pitching in the last 30 days with all four of those guys having a wOBA of over .350 each.
Gutierrez is walking nearly 10 percent of batters on the season and has an FIP of 5.44 compared to his ERA of 4.15. He’s been a bit lucky as of late due to leaving 81.1 percent of runners on base this season.
The Braves have been pretty clutch since welcoming new players to their club and that’s why they’re sitting in first place in the NL East after being below .500 for most of the season.
On the other hand, Kyle Muller will get the start for the Braves. He’s 2-3 with a 2.88 ERA and probably has been more unlucky this season. He still only has an FIP of 3.12 and is allowing an average of .174 from his opponents. The one thing Muller needs to improve on is his walks.
In his last three starts, he has dropped walks to two per game which is certainly an improvement. It’s hard to get hits off Muller as he’s allowed four hits or fewer in every game in July and August this season.
The Reds batters are 0-14 against Muller in their careers and have two walks to eight strikeouts. Muller has actually dominated this lineup previously and as long as the walks stay at around two in this game, it’s hard to imagine the Reds finding a way in the first five innings here.
For team total spots, there aren’t many glaring spots today. I’m changing it up and bit and taking the Braves in the first five innings on the moneyline.
The Reds have struggled against Muller and it seems like every team has when it comes to getting base hits.
I love the Braves lineup right now and think it’s so much more balanced than it was earlier this season.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Braves F5 ML @ -140
Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.