Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks

Matt Manning vs. John Means as the Tigers and Orioles meet on Thursday night. Don't miss MLB handicapper Matt Zylbert's picks for today
Matt Zylbert
Thu, August 12, 8:34 AM EDT

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

Over/Under: 10.5

First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Matt Manning (2-5, 6.33 ERA) vs. John Means (5-3, 2.79 ERA)

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Really? A total of 10.5 for this encounter?

Do the linesmakers not realize these two starters hooked up less than two weeks and produced a clear-cut 5-2 under win?

And this won’t be the second straight assignment for the pair of probables against the same opponent either, so we don’t have to worry as much about both lineups re-acclimating quickly at the dish.

Of course, the site of today’s series finale — hitter-friendly Camden Yards — is noticeably baked into the line but it may not be as impactful as some may think.

Means, for one, is usually a steady arm to lean on, no matter where he’s pitching. In his handful of seasons with the O’s, the 28-year-old carries very similar home-and-road splits. Either way, when Means recently faced Detroit, he stifled them, yielding only one run in six sharp innings.

The 2019 All-Star came back from a month-plus-long stay on the injured list in late July, and after a couple of suspect performances, Means appears to have settled back into a groove. I’ll trust him to keep trending in that exact direction, especially with such a high over/under.

Then we have the rookie Manning, someone I’ve been raving about literally since he was drafted. Trust me, he’s looked better that 6.33 ERA may suggest.

Look no further than the right-hander’s 4.58 FIP, which isn’t great, but it still illustrates how Manning has been as bad as the overall line next to his name. He’s also been unlucky, having to deal with a .320 batting average on balls put in play.

The main issue for Manning thus far into his big-league journey (nine starts) is the surprising lack of strikeouts. After all, the former first-round draft pick say comfortably around 10.0 K/9 during his time in the minor leagues. This particular assignment provides a decent matchup for Manning to change that considering the Orioles pack plenty of free-swingers in their lineup that can accumulate the K’s.

Manning allowed five runs in that aforementioned date opposing Means, but only two were earned. He can churn out something similar here, paired with improved defense, and that’d be enough.

Pick: UNDER 10.5 (-109)

Leans

Nationals-Mets Under 6.5 (Game 1)

Padres-Diamondbacks Under 9

Rockies-Giants Under 7.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “62-52-8,” +3.5 units

Yesterday’s Result: Marlins-Padres Under 8.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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