Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Pick
Date: Friday, August 13
Time: 7:05pm ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Probable Pitchers
- Phillies: Zack Wheeler (10-6, 2.42 ERA)
- Reds: Tyler Mahle (9-3, 3.78 ERA)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Is the NL East the worst division in baseball? Yes, most likely. Is it also the most interesting when it comes to the MLB playoff push? Also yes. This series with the Reds that the Phillies have coming up is crucial. The Mets are back within a half game for the NL East lead and the Braves are only a half game behind them.
For the Reds, a NL Central title is probably out of the questions as they’re eight games behind the Brewers for first, but a Wild Card berth is still very much within their grasp. Just 2.5 games behind San Diego, they need to start piling up wins.
This three-game series for these teams is crucial, expect a playoff atmosphere in Philly this weekend and a lot of close, hard-fought games.
Luckily for the Phillies, they have their ace on the mound for Friday’s Game 1.
Zack Wheeler is the best player in baseball. Okay, that’s a stretch. He’s probably not even a top-10 player but he does lead Major League Baseball in WAR this season at 6.1. He’s the favorite to win the NL Cy Young award and he’s coming off a thorough dismantling of the Mets on Sunday, where he threw a complete game 2-hitter while striking out 11.
For the Reds, Tyler Mahle is getting the ball in the middle of an up-and-down season for the 26-year old. Last time out, he went seven strong, striking out 10 and allowing just 2 runs against the Pirates. But, Mahle has also gotten touched up a bit in a few of his starts. This Phillies offense is hot, so it’s really a toss-up when considering what we’ll get from him.
I do think we get a good start from Mahle today because of the amount of injuries this Phillies team is dealing with. Slugging first baseman Rhys Hoskins is on the IL and their second best hitter, catcher JT Realmuto, is day-to-day with a head injury.
The only player really hitting the ball right now for the Phillies is Bryce Harper. Luckily for them, he’s murdering the baseball. Harper has homered in five of his last nine games and is fresh off a monster home run that propelled the Phillies to a win over the Dodgers yesterday.
Still, there is just too much unknown from the Phillies bats.
Because of that, I’m going to stay away from the Phillies offense all together in this one and instead focus on Wheeler and what he can control.
I’m riding Cincinatti F5 TT under 1.5 as well as the under on the F5 total for the game at 4. And, since it was so good to me last time out, I’m sprinkling on Wheeler over 7.5 strikeouts in a big game for the Phillies.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Reds F5 TT Under 1.5 @ +100
Bonus Mets vs. Phillies Picks
F5 Under 4 @ +105
Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts @ +115