Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction & Pick
Date: Friday, Augut 13
Time: 10:10 pm ET
Where: T-Mobile Park
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Probable Pitchers
- Blue Jays: Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.90 ERA)
- Mariners: Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.81 ERA)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
The Blue Jays and Mariners are basically playing for a couple of American League wild card spots. Both teams have over 60 wins and could use three more over the weekend just as bad as the other team.
Chris Flexen will take the mound for the Mariners after allowing eight hits and three runs in five innings against the Yankees in his last start. Flexen has struck out 13 batters in his last 11.2 innings which is something we didn’t see earlier this year.
In the last 30 days, Flexen has a 5.17 xFIP and is still just striking out 15.3 percent of batters. He’s not known for striking many guys out but has been able to limit walks under five percent in the last 30 days.
He’ll only induce 38.8 percent of ground balls and allow 25.5 percent line drives along with 38.8 percent hard contact. Lefties have some power against Flexen with a .196 ISO but Flexen has done a solid job striking lefties out at 25.5 percent.
The problem is that he’s bad against righties, as a righty. Flexen is giving up a wOBA of .455 with an ISO of .242 in his last 69 plate appearances against righties. He’s only striking out 7.2 percent of righties and he’ll likely face an order of at least six righties and potentially more against the Blue Jays.
In the last 30 days, the Blue Jays offense has done well against righties. They’re hitting a .227 ISO and a wOBA of .356 collectively as a lineup. They’re only striking out 16.2 percent of the time and walking over seven percent. Flexen’s strikeout numbers have been fun in the last two games but don’t expect that to continue tonight against the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays also limit ground ball rates and hit under 40 percent grounders in the last 30 days against righties.
As a unit, the Blue Jays have an OPS of 1.042 in their career against Flexen going 8-for-22 with a home run and just three RBI’s.
Those three RBI’s came from George Springer and Marcus Semien who combined going 3-for-8 with two extra base hits against Flexen.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is also 2-for-2 against Flexen with a double and a walk while Lourdes Gurriel and Teooscar Hernandez are each 1-for-2 in their plate appearances against Flexen.
With Flexen struggling against righties this season, the Blue Jays should hit plenty at the top of their order
On the season, Flexen has a 5.40 ERA through five innings and one start. He gave up seven hits and three runs with three walks and two strikeouts. Basically, this means the Blue Jays had 10 base runners but only found a way to score three runs through five innings.
It could’ve been much more but they found a way to get three. I’ll take the Blue Jays to score over 2.5 runs in the first five innings against Flexen and the Mariners. It’s a terrific matchup for this group. They had an average of two base runners each inning against Flexen last time out.