New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks
Monday, August 16, 2021 – 9:45pm EST
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Probable Pitchers:
- Mets: Rich Hill (6-4, 4.05 ERA)
- Giants: Kevin Gausman (11-5, 2.29 ERA)
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction
The New York Mets are in the middle of one of the weirdest stretches of scheduling I can remember seeing. From August 13-26 they play just two teams – the Dodgers and the Giants. They kicked off the West Coast portion of this brutal stretch by getting swept by the Dodgers. They will need a better showing here.
The Mets began the month in first place in the NL East and if they don’t perform well in this stretch they run the risk of being completely out of contention by the time the end of the month rolls around. The Dodgers and Giants are probably the two best teams in the NL, but they need to figure something out.
The opening game against the Giants on Monday sees them going up against the best arm that San Francisco has in Kevin Gausman. The bad news for the Mets is Gausman, once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, is finally living up to his potential. The good news for New York is that they have had success against him in the past.
As for the Mets, they’re trotting out Rich Hill for Game 1. Hill was acquired from the Rays earlier this season and has been somewhat of a disappointment so far. His last time out, he went just three innings and allowed three earned runs.
As I look at this game and try and find some value, I obviously love the Giants to win against a reeling Mets team. But, at -200, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Instead, I’m looking at their first five team total going over 2.5 as the -105 odds are much more palatable.
In his career, Rich Hill has struggled mightily against the projected lineup for San Francisco. As a unit, this lineup hits .337 in 104 at-bats against Hill. Hill has allowed four home runs and 10 extra-base hits against the expected starters and comes into the game in bad form.
In his four starts as a Met this season, Hill has allowed more than 2.5 runs in the first five innings in three of four games.
In 20 at-bats against Hill, Buster Posey is hitting .500 with a home run, four RBIs and two XBH. Brandon Belt, who isn’t known for hitting at a high average, has a .400 average against Hill in 15 ABs.
I have some concerns about Gausman in this one as this Mets lineup has hit him well in the past. So, I’m staying away from anything that has to do with game outcome and instead just riding the Giants to get to Rich Hill early.
This should be a relatively straight-forward bet that doesn’t have a lot of sweat involved as Hill has struggled recently and the Giants hitters have mashed against him in the past.
MLB Bet: Giants F5 TT Over 2.5 @ -105