Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction & Over/Under Pick

Oakland Atheltics vs. Chicago White Sox predictions and picks from MLB expert Matt Zylbert. Don't miss his pick for Monday's game in Chicago.
Matt Zylbert
Mon, August 16, 10:34 AM EDT

Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction & Over/Under Pick

Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Probable pitchers: Frankie Montas (9-8, 3.98 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (7-6, 4.51 ERA)

Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction

Many may not realize this but Montas began his career seven years as a member of the White Sox. Tonight’s outing at Guaranteed Rate Field marks his return.

It wasn’t a pretty stint for Montas in the Windy City, one that consisted of only a handful of games (seven, including a pair of starts). He was then dealt that winter.

Oakland is where Montas landed — and it’s where he’s really established himself.

One of the more underrated starters in the league, the 255-pound right-hander continues to churn out solid work, enjoying his best full season to date (his 2019 was fabulous but also involved him out half the year for a PEDs suspension).

He’s already tied his career high with nine wins and most notably, Montas is also maintaining a very hearty strikeout rate (10.03 K/9). Perhaps the 28-year-old should finally be recognized as a top arm.

No question Montas will have his hands full taking on a dangerous offense like the one that resides on the north side of Chicago. However, considering the rhythm he’s in right now, having strung together six consecutive quality starts for the first time since debuting with the White Sox, I believe he’s up for the task of hanging in there opposite his old team. The extra motivation will help provide a major boost.

On the other side of this pitching matchup is Keuchel, a perfectly fine option to deploy alongside Montas while seeking out a lower-scoring affair. The key is the former AL Cy Young is working from home.

Throughout his lengthy career, the 10-year veteran has looked consistently better in home starts compared to on the road. In fact, his home ERA (3.14) is more than a full run thinner than it is for his away assignments (4.23). That’s very significant across such a big sample size.

Predictably, the same tendency continues to play out this season, as Keuchel holds a 4.10 ERA in his Chicago dates compared to a 4.99 ERA collectively anywhere else.

The southpaw’s experience with this opponent can also play a role. Obviously, while a Houston Astro for many years, Keuchel pitched in 22 games (20 starts) against the A’s, notching an encouraging 3.06 ERA across those 141.1 total innings.

When two generally steady starters are attached to a high total, the under is always worth a thought. In this case, anticipated solid pitching merits a wager.

Pick: UNDER 9 (+106)

MLB Leans

Indians-Twins Under 9.5

Padres-Rockies Over 13

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “63-55-8,” +1.15 units

Yesterday’s Result: Blue Jays-Mariners Under 9 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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