Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Prediction & Pick
Tuesday, August 17, 2021 – 7:10pm EST
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Probable Pitchers:
- Braves: Huascar Ynoa (4-2, 3.02 ERA)
- Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (7-10, 3.52 ERA)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
The Braves have a little bit of breathing room, sitting above four teams in the NL East, in first place. Atlanta made some big moves as the deadline but have also returned a couple key pieces to their puzzle recently.
The next man to return will be Huascar Ynoa, who hasn’t pitched since May 16. Ynoa was on a roll for the Braves with a 4-2 record and a 4.54 ERA. The ERA was inflated due to two poor starts but his other six starts, he allowed two or fewer runs in all of them.
We don’t know how deep he’ll be able to go or really how the Marlins will do against Ynoa due to no recent stats.
But we can project the Braves against Miami pitcher Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara has faced 52 righties in his last 30 days on the mound. He’s given up a .389 wOBA and ISO of .277 with just 19.2 percent of strikeouts against righties.
Then to lefties, he’s giving up way more hard contact, inducing less ground balls and way more line drives, nearing 30 percent in his last 47 plate appearances against lefties.
Alcantara has potential for big outings but he also has potential to blow up in starts. Recently, he threw seven innings against the Padres offense but prior to that, the Rockies scored 10 runs off 10 hits in 3.2 innings.
Before that one, he gave up no runs and two hits in seven innings to the Yankees. Prior to that one, he allowed three runs off two home runs against the Orioles. The two games before those, he allowed five runs each in less than 5 innings in both games.
The reality is, Alcantara has 10 losses on his record. He gives up enough runs to lose games plenty of times. That could happen today.
The Braves haven’t necessarily rocked Alcantara in their careers. Ozzie Albies has a .389 average, Dansby Swanson has a .400 average, and Freddie Freeman has hit .267.
Joc Pederson has also hit a homer against Alcantara in three at-bats.
But as of late, the Braves have smoked right-handed pitching and have an ISO of .240 with a wOBA of .380 against righties in the last 30 days using a sample size and average of about 72 at-bats per player.
You can get the Braves over 1.5 runs in the first five innings at a reasonable price via DraftKings.
After the Braves scored 12 runs last night against the Marlins, it’s clear to see that the offense has found it. This is now a first-place team with plenty of exciting new pieces that are contributing at a high rate with the absence of Ronald Acuna Jr.
Let’s take that Braves team total over. We’ll need just two runs in the first five innings and after all, Alcantara has not been great against righties in the last 30 days. The lineup will include five righties, three powerful lefties and a pitcher who can actually rake in Ynoa.
MLB Bet: Braves F5 TT Over 1.5 @ -135