Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks

After yesterday's winner, Matt Zylbert returns to break down his Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction for Tuesday's game in Cincinnati.
Matt Zylbert
Tue, August 17, 9:12 AM EDT

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Over/Under: 10

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Kyle Hendricks (13-5, 4.15 ERA) vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (8-3, 3.95 ERA)

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

There’s no question the Reds are as dangerous as anyone in the league right now at the plate. They continue to scorch.

However, Cincy is about to meet a quality pitcher, one that is actually in a desirable spot from a betting perspective despite a really rough go his last turn in the rotation.

Hendricks was actually tagged for a career-worst nine runs in the outing — a home date against Milwaukee — and although the Reds aren’t exactly a desired matchup in order to rebound right away, the opponent may not matter given the right-hander’s glaring past tendencies.

Last Thursday’s poor start marked the 17th time in the career of Hendricks that the eighth-year Cub allowed more than four runs in an assignment. In the previous 16 ensuing starts, Hendricks etched a beautiful 2.82 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, indicating he consistently bounces back.

Resolve is a character trait worth noting in a pitcher — since the season consists of ups and downs for all — and it’s certainly worth noting that the last six such instances resulted in Hendricks churning out a quality start next time out. That performance can play a large role determining how any over/under plays out.

It also helps when the other starter is very capable of a solid performance in this particular spot, and that’s absolutely the case regarding Gutierrez facing the Cubs.

As I’ve already detailed a few times the last couple of weeks, the Cubbies are currently in disarray offensively, trotting out various regular position players that otherwise normally wouldn’t be starting.

Well, Gutierrez has already taken on Chicago twice in his young career — including in his Major League debut (a 1-0 under we won) — and that was when they still had their regular cast of star sluggers.

The outcomes were exactly what you’d want for a high total, Gutierrez held the Cubs to only three runs total across the two games, spanning 11.1 innings. And this should obviously be a much easier task.

The Cuban import is also coming in hot, having notched four consecutive quality starts. Gutierrez had five of those under his belt in his previous 10 career outings.

Great American Ball Park is not the ideal destination to catch a lower-scoring affair. However, these two starters, in the spot they’re currently in, can provide just that.

Pick: UNDER 10 (-115)

MLB Leans

Indians-Twins Over 9.5

Mets-Giants Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “64-55-8,” +2.21 units

Yesterday’s Result: Athletics-White Sox Under 9 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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