Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
Tuesday, August 17, 2021 – 9:40pm EST
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers:
- Phillies: Kyle Gibson (8-4, 2.91 ERA)
- Diamondbacks: TBD
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
The Diamondbacks haven’t named their starter officially but the thought is we’ll likely see Caleb Smith take the bulk of the game. There might be an opener prior to Smith, but, again, Smith will likely be pitching most innings in this game.
Smith has a 4-8 record with a 5.17 ERA on the year. He last pitched five days ago and allowed just one run in 5.1 innings against the Padres.
Prior to that start, Smith lasted 1.1 innings against the Padres and gave up five runs behind six walks and three hits. He also allowed five runs in 1.2 innings against the Dodgers on August 1.
Sure, Smith looked better in his last outing against the Padres but that same Padres team was also no-hit over the weekend. The Phillies, on the other hand, have crushed left-handed pitching and this game should be no different.
Smith has an xFIP of 5.80 in the last 30 days with a walk rate of 17.2 percent. He is capable of striking out batters but doesn’t get a high amount of grounders.
The Phillies will get runners on base. They’ll just have to be clutch with RISP. At the end of the day, Smith has been about average with leaving runners on base but everything else has been below average. Smith is walking 13 percent of batters on the season and has an FIP and xFIP above 5.00.
The Phillies projected lineup has an ISO of .276, wOBA of .391 and strike out just 14.7 percent of the time against lefties in the last 30 days. They’re also walking 12.8 percent of the time and have almost walked more than struck out in the last 30 days against lefties.
Smith has struggled against lefties as of late with a .449 wOBA and ISO of .364. Guys like Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorious have plenty of potential at the plate, despite just one hit against Smith in a combined 10 plate appearances.
Harper has crushed lefties with a .250 ISO and wOBA of .449 but it’s been Andrew McCutchen and J.T. Realmuto who has been red hot against left-handed pitching.
The Phillies will have plenty of opportunity to go yard against Smith and those long balls would likely happen with a couple guys on base due to Smith walking over 17 percent of batters in the last 30 days.
This lineup has been patient against lefties, they can fight off pitches, limit strikeouts, and take the walk if they’re given it. They’ve had a really good approach against lefties as of late.
The Phillies are currently -120 on the moneyline against the Diamondbacks with Smith potentially getting the bulk of the innings and that’s just way too low.
Arizona’s offense has struggled against any kind of pitching in the last 30 days and have been really bad against righties with only Josh Rojas producing at a consistent pace.
Kyle Gibson will get the start for the Phillies and while he’s been bad as of late, he’s kept the opponent's power down. Gibson has struggled getting strikeouts since moving to Philadelphia but with the Diamondbacks striking out 23.7 percent of the time in the last 30 days against righties, I like Gibson to have a successful outing against the Diamondbacks.
Take the Phillies on the moneyline. It's a playoff team against a non-playoff team.
MLB Bet: Phillies ML @ -120