Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Prediction & Pick
Wednesday, August 18, 2021 – 7:10pm EST
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Probable Pitchers:
- Braves: Charlie Morton (11-4, 3.49 ERA)
- Marlins: Jesus Luzardo (4-5, 7.52 ERA)
Jesus Luzardo has always been a promising prospect and pitcher. Except this year, things have been off.
Earlier this season, the A’s sent him down to Triple A and then by the trade deadline, Oakland went out and traded for Starling Marte, trading Luzardo as the big piece in the deal.
It seems like great value for the Marlins but currently, Luzardo has struggled in his first three games with the big league club.
Luzardo has gone five innings or less in all three games for the Marlins in August, allowing 17 hits and 15 runs in 14.2 innings. He’s also walked 11 and only struck out 13 during these three games.
In the last 30 days, Luzardo has had some ugly numbers. The left-hander has an xFIP of 6.59 while striking out just 18.1 percent of batters and walking 15.3 percent of batters. He will limit line drive contact but hasn’t been able to induce a high amount of grounders.
In his last 61 plate appearances against righties, Luzardo has allowed a wOBA of .455 with an ISO of .333. He has struggled to strike righties out and actually has walked righties more than he’s struck out in those last 61 plate appearances.
The Braves offense should have seven righties in the lineup with the only exceptions being Freddie Freeman and the pitcher’s spot. This lineup can rake against lefties with Jorge Soler hitting an ISO of .650 and wOBA of .483.
As a team, they’re striking out just 17.6 percent of the time and walking 11.2 percent of the time against lefties in the last 30 days. These numbers match-up to Luzardo’s weaknesses.
The Braves continue to hit line drive contact and limit grounders and every batter in the lineup but one has been hitting the ball hard consistently against lefties.
On the year, Luzardo has a 7.52 ERA. It’s been a brutal year for Luzardo but we still have to remember he’s just 23 years old. Either way, the Braves offense should do quick damage against Luzardo.
Also, here’s a fun fact. Only one batter in the Braves lineup has ever faced Luzardo. It was Jorge Soler, who faced him one time and hit a two-run home run. So now Soler is 1-for-1 against Luzardo with a home run and two RBI’s. That amounts to an OPS of 5.000.
If you’re looking for a home run prob, Soler would be a nice look.
Luzardo has given up nine home runs for the first time through an order. In 107 at-bats, he’s given up 14 extra base hits and an OPS of .969. He’s also got an OPS of .929 the second time through an order and a .914 the third time through an order.
It’s not even fatigue. It’s just pure bad pitching with high walks and mistake pitches.
Look for the Braves to capitalize early.
I’ll take the Braves Over 2 in the first five innings on the team total. The two numbers are crucial because if the Braves only score two runs instead of three, it’s a push and we can live for another day.
Still, I’m confident we’ll see three runs or more against Luzardo here.
MLB Bet: Braves F5 TT Over 2 @ -136