Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction & Pick
Wednesday, August 18, 2021 – 8:10pm EST
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Probable Pitchers:
- Astros: Zack Greinke (11-3, 3.51 ERA)
- Royals: Brady Singer (3-8, 5.42 ERA)
It looked like a promising start to the season for Brady Singer. After allowing 10 runs in his first two games combined, he settled down and allowed four earned runs or more in just one of his next eight.
But since, he’s had his moments where he’s looked bad and struggled.
Singer has only thrown in four games since the beginning of July and in three of those four games, he’s allowed three or more runs while pitching through the fourth innings just once in those four games.
Singer allowed three runs off five hits in three innings against the Twins to start July. He then allowed one run on five hits against the Reds. 10 days later, the Orioles roughed Singer up with seven runs on eight hits in two innings.
Then three weeks later, the Yankees secured a win over Singer with 10 hits and five runs in 3.2 innings. This was just last week.
In that game against the Yankees, Singer has a wOBA of .494 to lefties and .629 to lefties. He gave up some power to lefties and walked three while just striking out two.
On the season, Singer still has an xFIP of 4.66 and has walked 9.4 percent of batters on the season. He’s mainly struggled with lefties but has also given up nearly 25 percent line drive contact on the entire season.
Meanwhile, the Astros offense has struggled a bit against lefties as of late. But they’ve been fine against righties. The projected lineup has an ISO of .213 with a wOBA of .377 against righties in the last 30 days. They’re also walking 8.5 percent of the time and hitting 26 percent line drive contact.
Singer gives up 25 percent line drive contact while the Astros are hitting 26 percent line drive contact and only 38.3 percent ground balls. This is an area the Astros can exploit as they’ve been hitting hard balls that have found grass with a BABIP of .370 in the last 30 days.
Singer has never faced the Astros in his career but he’ll have to go through a bunch of all-stars tonight. Jose Altuve has a .240 ISO and wOBA of .359 in his last 82 plate appearances while Yordan Alvarez has smacked righties around with a .316 ISO and wOBA of .417.
Even Jake Meyers has been great against righties through 15 plate appearances, hitting an ISO of .500 and wOBA of .501. Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel have high wOBA and can get on base for the big power bats to do some damage.
Singer hasn’t allowed a high amount of home runs this year but he’s struggled when runners are on base. He’s only allowed .79 home runs per nine innings, which is above average, but he’s below average with his left on base percentage, which is at 65.4 percent.
Once the Astros get on base, the merry-go-round should be in motion. Singer has allowed an OPS of .928 when runners are on base and a .959 OPS with runners in scoring position.
The Astros have a wOBA at nearly .400. That means there's a good chance we’ll see the Astros on base and when that happens, things fall apart for Singer.
But also, the Royals bullpen has not been great as of late either, so I’m confident with taking the full game team total over with the Astros, knowing I’m guaranteed nine innings with the Astros on the road.
MLB Bet: Astros Over 4.5 @ -160