Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals Prediction & Pick

We got another winner from Matt Zylbert yesterday, so you'll want to make sure you tail this one. Check out his Blue Jays vs. Nationals prediction and pick for Wednesday.
Matt Zylbert
Wed, August 18, 10:05 AM EDT

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals Prediction & Pick

Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52 ERA) vs. Josiah Gray (0-1, 4.13 ERA)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

When the Nationals traded away franchise stalwarts Max Scherzer and Trea Turner in the same deal, questions were abound about what they received.

One of those imports, Gray, is providing early dividends in at least giving Washington something in the short term. The rookie right-hander has shined thus far in his new digs — albeit in only three starts — proving worth as an investment.

In just his second start with the Nationals a couple of weeks ago, Gray registered his first career 10-strikeout performance, dazzling against the first-place Atlanta Braves. He then held his own when he faced them again the very next turn, en route to etching his first ever quality start.

Even only five games (four starts) into Major League life, Gray looks like he’ll stick around — as an effective pitcher.

We also have Berrios, another recent trade-deadline acquisition, one that’s been effective across his entire career.

Like his counterpart tonight, Berrios has also made three starts for his new club, though after excellent showings in the first pair of assignments as a Blue Jay, he got walloped for a season-worst six runs and failed to complete at least five innings for only the second time this season. However, like with Kyle Hendricks coming off an uncharacteristic bad outing in our under yesterday, Berrios responds, too.

After that last assignment, there have now been 18 times the last five years (not including his freshman campaign, as he was still figuring himself out) in which Berrios yielded at least five runs. In those previous 17 ensuing starts, the former Minnesota Twin registered a shiny 2.88 ERA and 1.01 WHIP alongside a shiny 100-28 K/BB ratio, illustrating that Berrios indeed proceeds to bounce back quickly.

While the Nats did just churn out 12 runs in yesterday’s series-opening triumph, that was their first game plating a double-digit amount since the trade deadline. Before that, they were only averaging 3.6 runs per game in their last nine contests.

Berrios at his sharpest can minimize any foe. I expect him to be just that in living up to his past tendencies of rebounding right away. Gray continuing solid work does it.

Pick: UNDER 9 (+105)

Leans

Brewers-Cardinals Under 7

Phillies-Diamondbacks Over 9.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “65-55-8,” +3.21 units

Yesterday’s Result: Cubs-Reds Under 10 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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