Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Prediction & Pick

Fresh off their sweep of the Red Sox, the Yankees host the Twins on Thursday. Jason Radowitz goes in-depth on tonight's Twins vs. Yankees game and breaks down his pick.
Jason Radowitz
Thu, August 19, 6:32 AM EDT

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Prediction & Pick

Thursday, August 19 – 7:05pm EST

Yankee Stadium

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Probable Pitchers:

  • Twins: John Gant (4-6, 3.49 ERA)
  • Yankees: Jameson Taillon (7-4, 3.89 ERA)

Click here to see Twins @ Yankees odds

The Yankees made some moves at the deadline, adding Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Heaney and more. As of late, it looks as though the Yankees made some really great moves to put themselves in prime position to make the playoffs.

The Yankees are at the top of the Wild Card standings after sweeping the Red Sox in their home ballpark. Now they’ll welcome a 54-win Twins team to the Bronx where they’ll look to continue their hot stretch.

John Gant will take the mound for the Twins. This will be his first start in Twins uniform after being traded from the Cardinals to the Twins in the J.A. Happ deal. Since being acquired by the Twins, Gant has come out of the bullpen and has allowed eight hits in 8.2 innings along with six runs.

However, he has been able to limit walks to just two through 8.2 innings and has 13 strikeouts in those 8.2 innings.

The strikeouts are high and walks are low. That’s out of the bullpen. Gant, as a starter, walked way too many batters and that could be due to fatigue or whatever the case is.

Gant, throughout the season, has an xFIP of 5.98 with just 18.1 percent strikeouts and 15.6 percent walks. That’s a lot of walks for a starting pitcher.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are walking 11.5 percent of the time against righties on the season. Plus, in the last 30 days, the projected lineup has an ISO of .202 and wOBA of .341 against righties. The Yankees offense is coming alive.

Basically, for the Yankees, they’ll need to find a way to score with runners in scoring position. Gant has held 77.5 percent of runners on base this season but in the last 30 days, has a left on base percentage of under 68 percent. That number is decreasing by the day.

Gant’s ERA is just 3.49 but he has an FIP of 4.84. That’s more than a point difference between ERA and FIP which proves extreme luck for a guy that can walk over 15 percent of batters when on the mound.

With that, the Yankees will get on base. That’s a given. They’ll walk. But they’ll need to get a couple hits with runners in scoring position.

Gant has only allowed .74 home runs per nine innings which is one of the reasons he’s been able to escape damage. However, with a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate, in Yankee Stadium, I like the Yankees chances to hit a couple homers tonight against Gant with runners on base.

The Yankees offense is heating up and healthy. Anthony Rizzo is back in the lineup along with Gary Sanchez. And when you’re batting Luke Voit 7th in the lineup, it’s a darn good lineup.

MLB Bet: Yankees F5 TT Over 3.5 @ -115

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