Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
Thursday, August 19, 2021 – 9:40pm EST
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
- Phillies: Zack Wheeler (10-7, 3.40 ERA)
- Diamondbacks: Madison Bumgarner (6-7, 4.30 ERA)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
The Phillies offense has been quiet the last couple of days but with a lefty on the mound, things can change quickly.
Madison Bumgarner is expected to take the hill for the Diamondbacks and while he hasn’t been bad recently, his numbers still point to an explosion soon.
Bumgarner is 6-7 with a 4.30 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, Bumgarner has allowed an xFIP of 4.92 with a strikeout rate of 15.4 percent. He won’t walk many batters but struggles to induce ground balls at 31.1 percent and gives up 27.4 percent line drive contact along with 36.4 percent hard contact in the last 30 days.
In August, Bumgarner has thrown into the 7th inning in each of his three starts, allowing just five runs in 20.2 innings. But also, Bumgarner has allowed 21 hits and 43 fly balls in those 20.2 innings. He’s been getting out of jams recently and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start dating back to July and then now in August.
However, the Phillies match up well against lefties and could pour it on against Bumgarner. As a team, the Philliess have an ISO of .291 and wOBA of .401 with just 15.3 percent strikeouts and 13.2 percent walks. They’re hitting grounders just 38.2 percent of the time and hitting line drive contact 23 percent of the time.
This all exploits Bumgarner’s weaknesses. He allows a ton of line drives and is unable to induce a high rate of ground balls. He’ll also give up plenty of fly balls and doesn’t get a high amount of strikeouts, just like the Phillies bats do against lefties.
As the game progresses, Bumgarner tends to fall off a bit and fatigues. On the season, he’s allowed a much higher on base average at home than on the road which also bodes well for the Phillies who will be on the road in this one.
Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler will take the hill for the Phillies in a must-win game against the Diamondbacks. They’ve lost two straight in Arizona while the Braves continue to widen their lead and gap in first place in the NL East. The Phillies, with the potential Cy Young on the mound, have to find a way to win today’s game or they’ll be just one game above .500.
I like the Phillies bats to wake up and also believe Wheeler will pitch a gem against the Diamondbacks who haven’t been all that offensively either in this series.
I’m seeing the Phillies Over 2.5 in the first five innings for plus money and I’m willing to take it behind an offense that has absolutely raked against lefties this season.
Of course, it is a day game in Arizona and therefore lineups might be a bit different than what we’re expecting, but this is also a must-win game for the Phillies and I don’t think Joe Girardi is going to play around here.
As a disclaimer, I’m not betting this game because it’s a must win for the Phillies. That’s a poor way to bet things. While I view it as a must-win game, I’m betting off the Phillies match-up against lefties and Bumgarner. It’s an added bonus that the Phillies really need to win this game.
MLB Bet: Phillies F5 TT Over 2.5 @ +105