Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Pick
Friday, August 20 – 7:07pm EST
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles Probable Pitchers
- Braves: Max Fried (10-7, 3.78 ERA)
- Orioles: Keegan Akin (0-7, 8.13 ERA)
By now, if you’ve been reading my articles on a daily basis, you know how I roll. I like to fade poor starting pitchers and I usually play the over numbers in the first five innings.
Take a look at Keegan Akin above. He’s 0-7 with an 8.13 ERA. I would say that’s pretty bad!
Akin has allowed nine runs in his last seven innings of work against the Red Sox and Tigers and ultimately has a WHIP of 1.82 on the season. He’s allowing nearly two base runners every inning, giving up a batting average of .331 and a batting average of balls in play at .390.
Therefore, when a batter hits a ball in play, there’s a 39 percent chance it’ll be a base hit against Akin. That’s absolutely brutal.
Take Walker Buehler for example. His batting average of balls in play is .194. That means there’s a 19 percent chance a team that hits the ball in play will get a base hit.
Akin’s is 39 percent. You can double 19 and still won’t get 39!
On the season, Akin has an xFIP of 5.55 and is striking out 18.5 percent of batters. He’s been able to keep his walks low at 7.5 percent but doesn’t get a high amount of grounders, gives up a high amount of line drives, and allows 40 percent hard contact.
Righties are hitting a .399 wOBA along with an ISO of .209 and Akin has struggled even more striking out righties than lefties, as a left-handed pitcher. The walks are also greater against righties, reaching 9.1 percent on the season.
The Braves will have eight righties in their lineup, with no pitcher, thanks to the designated hitter with the game being played in Baltimore.
Jorge Soler has been a machine against left-handed pitching and has a .619 ISO and .468 wOBA in his last 49 plate appearances against lefties. Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman have also been getting on base at a high rate against lefties.
The other portion of the lineup has been on and off against lefties recently but they’ll face the worst left-hander in the league in Akin.
As a team, the projected lineup is hitting a .223 ISO and wOBA of .349. They’re only striking out 17.4 percent and working walks 12.7 percent of the time.
The Braves will find their way on base behind some solid hits and walks. They’ll need some clutch RBI’s against Akin, who has been awful with runners on base this season. He has only left 58.1 percent of runners on base.
Nearly half of the runners Akin puts on base are scoring. That’s why his numbers are so bad this year. His ERA is set at 8.13 but FIP is only 4.78. That’s a huge difference. He’s getting rocked with balls in play while runners are on base.
That’s also because of his hard contact rate and it’s not really luck.
The Braves prices are high going up against a guy with an 8.13 ERA, but with a lineup of eight righties and Freddie Freeman against the worst lefty in baseball, I’m willing to pay up a little bit for an even number of 3.
MLB Bet: Braves F5 TT Over 3 @ -130