Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Pick

Saturday's full slate of games features a bunch of good matchups across the MLB. Handicapper Jason Radwoitz sees value in today's Marlins vs. Reds game.
Jason Radowitz
Sat, August 21, 5:47 AM EDT

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Pick

Saturday, August 21 – 6:40pm EST

Great American Ball Park

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Probable Pitchers:

  • Marlins: Zach Thompson (2-5, 2.91 ERA)
  • Reds: Wade Miley (10-4, 2.84 ERA)

Click here to see Marlins vs. Reds odds

Despite having an ERA below three. Zach Thompson hasn’t been all that great recently. In August, the Marlins right-hander has thrown 14 innings with 11 hits allowed and eight runs.

Thompson has struck out seven in those 14 innings and walked six batters. He really hasn’t been a strikeout threat this season and has struggled to get lefties out as of late.

In the last 30 days, Thompson has an xFIP of 5.36 with a strikeout rate under 15 percent along with a walk rate of 10.7 percent. He’s giving up nearly 40 percent of hard contact and his last 50 lefties faced have a wOBA of .392 and ISO of .233.

For the Reds, it would be nice to have Jesse Winker in the lineup, but unfortunately, he’s on the IL. Instead, they’ll have Tyler Naquin, who just hit a bomb of his own last night and is coming on strong as of late.

Other lefties include the red-hot Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas and Tucker Barnhart along with a potential position player in Shogo Akiyama, who would take over for Aristides Akiyama if he plays.

Thompson has had 13.6 percent of plate attempts that resulted in a batted ball with a launch angle of 22 and 36 with a velocity of over 80mph.

That bodes well for the Reds lineup that currently would have six of their eight players hitting hard contact against righties consistently.

The Reds projected lineup with Barnhart as catcher and Aquino as an outfielder, has an ISO of .249 and wOBA of .354 against righties in the last 30 days. The strikeouts are high but like we talked about earlier, Thompson is no strikeout threat.

The Reds bottom half of the order has remained patient at the plate with Moustakas walking 16.7 percent and Aquino walking 15.4 percent of the time in the last 30 days.

There’s no go time to get to Thompson but it should be noted that Thompson never really goes deep into games. The most pitches he’s thrown in a game is 91 and he’s only surpassed 85 pitches twice on the season.

Because he pitches to contact, he’s able to get through innings quickly, but today, he might not get that deep with his pitch count and innings. The contact that he allows today will become base hits and he’ll have to exit the game early.

I like the Reds offense to explode early against Thompson. They’re hitting just 37.9 percent ground balls against righties in the last 30 days and have a line drive rate of 23.1 percent against righties during the same time frame.

In 88 degree temperature at first pitch, it’s solid hitting weather for the Reds to do some damage. I’ll take the Reds Over 2.5 in the first five innings at -120. There’s value here.

It’ll be hard for Thompson to leave the game without giving up at least three runs through five innings.

MLB Bet: Reds F5 TT Over 2.5 @ -120

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