Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks

OddsChecker's lead MLB analyst Jason Radowitz previews Tuesday's MLB slate. First up, read his picks for the Twins @ Red Sox
Jason Radowitz
Tue, August 24, 10:43 AM EDT

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Probable Pitchers:

  • Twins: Griffin Jax (3-1, 5.11 ERA)
  • Red Sox: Tanner Houck (0-3, 3.12 ERA)

Click here to see Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox odds.

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

The Twins are looking for potential starters for next year’s team. One of the potential starters is Griffin Jax, who is 3-1 on the year but has a 5.11 ERA.

Jax has pitched past the 5th inning in all three starts in August but has still allowed 15 hits and eighth runs including four home runs.

Jax hasn’t faced the Red Sox this year but has been beat up by righties where they have an OPS of .876 against him on the season through 106 at-bats.

In the last 30 days, Jax has an xFIP of 5.52 with a strikeout rate of just 16.7 percent. He’s giving up 45.6 percent hard contact and inducing just 42.6 percent of ground balls. As of late, he’s done a solid job limiting hitts with a BABIP of .203 and has lowered his walks to 6.7 percent in the last 30 days.

However, Jax is known for giving up a lot of extra base hits early in his career. In just 10 games and six starts, batters have hit 11 home runs in 44 innings.

He’s allowed an ISO of .207 to lefties in the last 30 days along with a .189 to righties in the last 30 days. That’s where the Red Sox bats come in.

The projected lineup has an ISO of .230 against righties in the last 30 days along with a wOBA of .363. This team only strikes out 17.8 percent of the time and walks 11.8 percent of the time against righties in the last 30 days.

On top of that, Boston’s lineup has hit just 36.2 percent of ground balls and nearly 24 percent of line drive contact against righties in the last 30 days.

Every batter but Enrique Hernandez and Christian Vazquez is hitting for at least an ISO of .200 against righties in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the team also has a wOBA of .363, like I pointed out. When home runs are hit against Jax, the Red Sox should have guys on base thanks to their low strikeout rate and ground ball rate.

Jax has been a bit lucky this year, despite his 5.11 ERA. His FIP is actually 5.92 for the season, which is nearly a point above his ERA. He’s about average when it comes to leaving runners on base but his home run rate, which is 2.25 per nine innings, is what keeps the FIP high.

The Red Sox should be able to tee off against Jax and hit a couple home runs in this game. Before Jax exits, the Red Sox should have four or more runs in this game.

Therefore, I’ll take the over 3 in the first five innings for the Red Sox. The juice is a bit higher but it’s solid insurance knowing if the Red Sox only score three, you’ll get your money back.

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction: Red Sox Over 3 F5 TT (-136) at PointsBet

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