Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction & Pick

MLB handicapper Matt Zylbert gives us his pick for Wednesday's Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs game at Wrigley Field.
Matt Zylbert
Wed, August 25, 8:21 AM EDT

Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction & Pick

Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs (Game 1)

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: German Marquez (11-9, 3.80 ERA) vs. Zach Davies (6-10, 5.04 ERA)

Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction

Arguably the most important thing when handicapping any Marquez start is evaluating where exactly he’ll be pitching.

Sure, it’s more common than not throughout time that Rockies pitchers generally work considerably better away from hitter-friendly Colorado. In the case of Marquez, though, those splits are significant and worth buying into for a bet.

Such will be the case here, as Marquez takes on the woeful offense that is the Cubs. For the most part, they continue to struggle scoring runs post-trade deadline without Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo, making them ripe for the picking opposite any quality MLB starter.

Well, Marquez certainly fits that bill. The first-time All-Star is enjoying probably his best season to date, crafting career-low marks in WHIP (1.17) and batting average against (.222). And as alluded to, he’s worth tailing when outside of Coors Field.

The other starter in this encounter, Davies, has not been as consistent this year as his counterpart but that doesn’t mean he cannot be trusted in this outing.

The seventh-year right-hander was actually in the midst of a fine campaign, carrying a respectable 4.35 ERA into the Midsummer Classic intermission. What ensued soon after, however, was maybe Davies’ worst back-to-back start stretch, in which he got hit for seven runs apiece.

Davies has somewhat righted the ship, at least, pitching Chicago into the seventh inning in each of his two starts since while notching 12 K’s compared to only two BB’s

This is notable because in his prior 12 assignments, Davies had walked at least two batters, and already a career-high 63 in all with more than one month remaining.

Davies cutting down on the number of free passes issued should assuredly get him back to his typical, acceptable form.

Being right-handed can also help Davies’ cause. Colorado is hitting 25 points lower against righties (.243) than southpaws (.268), and their OPS with a right-hander on the hill (.709) is close to 100 points lower than it is versus left-handers (.780).

I realize the total for the first game of this doubleheader is also 6.5 at some books as well. Even so, I suggest a wager on it.

Pick: UNDER 7 (-130)

Leans

Dodgers-Padres Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “67-59-9,” +1.11 units

Yesterday’s Result: Rangers-Indians Under 9 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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