Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Pick

The Diamondbacks travel to Philadelphia to take on a Phillies team in desperate need of a win. Matt Zylbert lets us in on his play for the total in this matchup.
Matt Zylbert
Thu, August 26, 9:10 AM EDT

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Pick

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Zac Gallen (1-7, 4.59 ERA) vs. Zach Eflin (4-7, 4.17 ERA)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds

Ah, another Gallen start. In other words, a game with easily one of baseball’s most underrated starting pitchers going today.

He continues flashing that reputation for this instance, drawing an over/under of 9 opposite a respectable pitcher like Eflin. Some places are offering 8.5 and that’s really where it should be across the board.

Oh well, we’ll try to capitalize from Gallen’s end after the third-year right-hander constructed his most impressive performance of the season when he twirled seven shutout innings with a season-best nine strikeouts last time out at the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field.

I’ve watched Gallen more than enough to get a feel on how much he cares more than most — meaning while he’s pitched better than his overall stat line, those numbers (especially the frustrating no-decisions) definitely bother him — and even though his club has been long gone from any playoff contention, this will still be viewed as a playoff-type assignment.

As usual, I trust Gallen to be in his game, and when that’s the case, he’s simply an upper echelon starter. Eflin, meanwhile, generally looks that way, too, when going at his ironically-hitter-favored home park.

First of all, this is Eflin’s first start back with Philadelphia in more than a month. A lot of times, that can be a tricky variable but the 27-year-old did look sharp in his recent rehab assignment. I’m sold there.

In any event, the main reasoning for backing Eflin here has much to do with his home-and-road splits. Through his seven seasons in the big leagues, Eflin holds an ERA at Citizens Bank Park (3.89) that is nearly a full run and a half lower than it is on the road (5.19). That assures the righty should be in a comfortable environment.

Plus, that 99-16 K/BB ratio and 3.68 FIP indicates Eflin has actually pitched better than what his stats on the year suggest. Attached to that relatively high number of 9, his steady pitching will play a big role.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-114)

MLB Leans

Angels-Orioles Under 11

Yankees-Athletics Under 8.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “67-60-9,” -0.13 unit

Yesterday’s Results: Rockies-Cubs Under 7 - Game 1 (No Action), Rockies-Cubs Under 7 - Game 2 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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