Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction & Betting Pick

MLB handicapper Jason Radowitz gives us his Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians prediciton and pick for Thursday's game in Cleveland.
Jason Radowitz
Thu, August 26, 6:40 AM EDT

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction & Betting Pick

  • Rangers: Jordan Lyles (6-10, 5.33 ERA)
  • Indians: Sam Hentges (1-4, 7.52 ERA)

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Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction

The Indians can get back over .500 with a win against Texas. Still, the team is nine games out of first place in their division and it’s going to take a miracle for the Indians to make the playoffs.

However, they’re still fighting and after a convincing win last night, the Indians have some momentum.

Jordan Lyles will take the hill for the Rangers with a 6-10 record and a 5.33 ERA. Lyles is coming off a very good outing against the Red Sox, holding them to just five hits and one run through seven innings. He walked three and struck out six with 100 pitches.

In August, Lyles has thrown 100 or more pitches in every start. The Rangers are letting Lyles pitch, despite allowing 32 hits in 24 innings while allowing 18 runs and six home runs.

The Rangers bullpen is that bad, so the Rangers just let Lyles eat innings. In the three games before his start against the Red Sox, Lyles allowed 17 runs and 27 hits in 17 innings. Even with that one-run performance against the Red Sox, Lyles has a 6.75 ERA in August.

Lyles has a 5.59 xFIP in the last 30 days and has struck out just over 20 percent of batters while walking nine percent of batters. He’s struggled inducing ground balls and is giving up 54.3 percent hard contact in those 30 days.

Lefties have a .379 wOBA and .333 ISO while righties have a .358 wOBA and ISO of .173 against Lyles in the last 30 days.

The offense for the Indians has been consistent against righties in that same time frame. While the projected lineup strikes out 25.1 percent of the time against righties, they’ve also got some power in the lineup with a .205 ISO. On top of that, the Indians have a wOBA of .341 and walk nearly 10 percent of the time.

This is a lineup that has six batters hitting a high amount of line drives against righties and as a group, they’ve got a BABIP of .323, which is above average.

Lyles allows plenty more line drives against righties and he’ll most likely see five righties in the lineup tonight. Lyles has actually had trouble against lefties when it comes to power, so having a balanced lineup is going to be crucial to score some runs. The
reality is, anyone in this lineup can go yard outside Andres Gimenez, for the most part.

Lyles is allowing 2.02 home runs per nine innings and with temperatures reaching around 85 at first pitch, the Indians offense could explode early.

I’ll grab the Indians to score three runs in the first five innings in this one. The entire lineup is capable of getting to Lyles with Myles Straw, Franmil Reyes and Austin Hedges each having a home run against Lyles in their careers.

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians PredictionIndians F5 TT Over 2.5 @ -125

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