Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Over/Under Pick
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Taylor Widener (2-1, 4.34 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.33 ERA)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Many people forget when Nola is on his game, he’s one of the top starters around.
Such appears to be so based on the right-hander’s last assignment, which saw Nola fall just one out short of a complete game and register his fifth double-digit strikeout performance of the season, etching 11 K’s.
Nola was sharp as a tack and it’s clear that he’s about to ender another lengthy steady groove of quality pitching after he had uncharacteristically allowed at least four runs in two of his prior three outings.
Though his 4.33 ERA might not jump off the page, the former No. 7 overall draft pick is actually having a better campaign than that judging by the strong 3.51 FIP he’s posted. It’s also worth noting that Nola is actually tied for sixth best among all qualified Major League starting pitchers in strikeouts per walk (5.3 K/BB).
Additionally, Nola’s crafting the lowest walk rate (2.07 BB/9) of his seven-year career while also maintaining his usual penchant for strikeouts (10.93 K/9) that we have gotten used to in recent seasons.
The likelihood of another nice showing coming up seems pretty good. Not only does this assignment consist of a last-place opponent, it’s also one that will be taking place at home, where Nola has generally thrived more compared to on the road. In fact, he has a lifetime ERA at Citizens Bank Park (3.03) that is significantly lower than elsewhere (4.21).
But can Widener do his part in sticking around? If you’ve been following the column this year, you know I’ve become quite a big fan of the 26-year-old rookie.
After Zac Gallen, who went yesterday in our cancelled under (due to pitching change), Widener is probably the most promising of any D-backs starter going right now and that’s certainly been on display as of late. For the first time since receiving his first big-league starting nod in April, Widener’s delivered three consecutive outings in which he held the opposition to no more than a pair of runs.
That last turn in the rotation was arguably his most impressive, notching five innings of one-run ball at hitters’ haven Coors Field and holding the Rockies to just a single hit (albeit with five walks given out).
Either way, I like the progression of Widener right now and believe he can keep it going. Pairing that alongside the home cooking of Nola in a favorable date would seem to point to a low-scoring final.
Pick: UNDER 9 (-120)
Cardinals-Pirates Under 9
Royals-Mariners Under 8
2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “67-60-9,” -0.13 unit
Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Phillies Under 9 (No Action)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit