Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Over/Under Pick

The Phillies keep losing, so they're still in desperate need of a win. On Friday, they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Matt Zylbert gives us his Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction.
Matt Zylbert
Fri, August 27, 8:49 AM EDT

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Over/Under Pick

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Taylor Widener (2-1, 4.34 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.33 ERA)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Dbacks vs. Phillies odds

Many people forget when Nola is on his game, he’s one of the top starters around.

Such appears to be so based on the right-hander’s last assignment, which saw Nola fall just one out short of a complete game and register his fifth double-digit strikeout performance of the season, etching 11 K’s.

Nola was sharp as a tack and it’s clear that he’s about to ender another lengthy steady groove of quality pitching after he had uncharacteristically allowed at least four runs in two of his prior three outings.

Though his 4.33 ERA might not jump off the page, the former No. 7 overall draft pick is actually having a better campaign than that judging by the strong 3.51 FIP he’s posted. It’s also worth noting that Nola is actually tied for sixth best among all qualified Major League starting pitchers in strikeouts per walk (5.3 K/BB).

Additionally, Nola’s crafting the lowest walk rate (2.07 BB/9) of his seven-year career while also maintaining his usual penchant for strikeouts (10.93 K/9) that we have gotten used to in recent seasons.

The likelihood of another nice showing coming up seems pretty good. Not only does this assignment consist of a last-place opponent, it’s also one that will be taking place at home, where Nola has generally thrived more compared to on the road. In fact, he has a lifetime ERA at Citizens Bank Park (3.03) that is significantly lower than elsewhere (4.21).

But can Widener do his part in sticking around? If you’ve been following the column this year, you know I’ve become quite a big fan of the 26-year-old rookie.

After Zac Gallen, who went yesterday in our cancelled under (due to pitching change), Widener is probably the most promising of any D-backs starter going right now and that’s certainly been on display as of late. For the first time since receiving his first big-league starting nod in April, Widener’s delivered three consecutive outings in which he held the opposition to no more than a pair of runs.

That last turn in the rotation was arguably his most impressive, notching five innings of one-run ball at hitters’ haven Coors Field and holding the Rockies to just a single hit (albeit with five walks given out).

Either way, I like the progression of Widener right now and believe he can keep it going. Pairing that alongside the home cooking of Nola in a favorable date would seem to point to a low-scoring final.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-120)

Leans

Cardinals-Pirates Under 9

Royals-Mariners Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “67-60-9,” -0.13 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Phillies Under 9 (No Action)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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