Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Betting Picks

The Rays and Orioles face off in an AL East showdown on Friday. Jason Radowitz gives us his Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction.
Jason Radowitz
Fri, August 27, 8:31 AM EDT

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Probable Pitchers

  • Rays: Shane McClanahan (8-4, 3.63 ERA)
  • Orioles: Matt Harvey (6-13, 6.27 ERA)

Rays vs. Orioles odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Five years ago, we would’ve expected Matt Harvey’s win-loss record to be completely flipped. As a Mets fan, it’s disheartening but that’s life.

The Orioles have won two straight games with an insane amount of offense recently. And maybe the Orioles offense continues to click. But I won’t mind either way.

It’s just a fade Matt Harvey day.

Harvey has an xFIP of 5.03 in the last 30 days and is striking out 19.6 percent of batters. While he’s keeping the walks down, his ground ball rate is also down along with a hard contact percentage of 53.1 percent.

His last 64 lefties have a wOBA of .346 with an ISO of .271 while his last 48 righties have a wOBA of .370 with an ISO of .182.

Harvey has struggled striking out righties with just 12.5 percent strikeouts and walks have also been high to righties.

The Rays are going to have a balanced lineup of righties and lefties. Lefties have more power while righties make more contact and walk often.

The projected lineup for Tampa Bay has an ISO of .244 and wOBA of .339 in the last 30 days against righties. Of course, the Rays are a high strikeout team and aren’t very patient at the plate but, for the most part, Harvey is a strike thrower. That will benefit the Rays as it has in the past.

On August 16, Harvey took on the Rays and gave up five runs in 4.2 innings with six strikeouts and a walk. He allowed two home runs and finished with 86 pitches before getting the final out in the 5th.

Earlier this season, he pitched against the Rays on May 18 and allowed seven hits and six runs through 1.2 innings of work.

Those were his two starts against the Rays this season. Basically, the Rays scored 12 runs in six innings against Harvey this year with 12 hits, seven strikeouts and four home runs.

As a team, the Rays have an OPS above 1.000, an average over .320 and have five extra base hits in 38 plate appearances along with 12 RBI’s. It’s always fun backing a team that loves analytics as much as I do.

They’ll play the batters that have the best chance to hit Harvey. They do this every game and that’s why they’re one win away from win number 80.

Plus, the Rays are playing in Baltimore, a hitter’s ballpark.

Let’s take the Rays here in the first five innings on the team total. I’m not messing with the hot Orioles lineup. I’m messing with Harvey. The Rays have scored 12 runs in six innings against Harvey this season. They’ve had his numbers and should continue to tonight.

We’ll take the Rays using the 3 numbers in the first five innings. Therefore, if the Rays only finish with three, it’s a push. If we get four, it’s a win.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction: Rays F5 TT Over 3 @ -131

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