Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Prediction & Pick
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Probable Pitchers
- Nationals: Paolo Espino (3-4, 4.28 ERA)
- Mets: Rich Hill (6-5, 4.13 ERA)
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Prediction
The Mets just lost 11 of their last 13 games to the Dodgers and the Giants. Seven of those losses were by one run. The Mets struggled with runners on base and most of all, struggled hitting the long ball.
Now the Mets get to take on the bottom of the NL East division. They’ll take on the Nationals this weekend and the Marlins the following weekend.
All is good, right?
Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. He’s a left-handed pitcher that has struggled with a 6.00 xFIP in the last 30 days. Hill has limited his walks from earlier this season but still inducing just 32.8 percent grounders and allowing 34.4 percent hard contact.
Hill hasn’t been terrible against lefties but he’s been pretty bad against righties as of late. Righties have a .443 wOBA and ISO of .364 in their last 47 plate appearances.
The thing about Hill is that he gives the Mets a chance to win every night. He’s allowed two or more runs in his last three stars and hasn’t pitched past the 5th inning as a Met this season.
Hill has thrown six games for the Mets and allowed two runs or more in five of those six games.
He now has to take on a Nationals offense that has dominated left-handed pitching all season long. Sure, there’s no more Trea Turner. They also don’t have Josh Harrison or Yan Gomes anymore but other guys are stepping up against left-handed pitching.
The projected lineup has an ISO of .200 and wOBA of .401 while striking out under 20 percent of the time and walking 13.3 percent of the time. Ryan Zimmerman has an ISO of .385 and wOBA of .413 while Lane Thomas has a .333 ISO and wOBA of .746.
His production is going to put him in the middle of the lineup instead of at the top because Thomas is a huge RBI threat now. In 16 plate appearances against lefties, Thomas hasn’t struck out once and has walked 25 percent of the time.
As a group, the Nationals are hitting 25.9 percent line drives against lefties and have a BABIP of .392 because of it.
Anytime you see the Nationals take on a struggling lefty, you’ve got to hit the trigger. I was surprised to see the team total for the Nationals at 1.5 tonight for the first five innings.
Hill has given up two or more in five of his six starts and will take on a team that is notoriously better against lefties than righties. Plus, if they decide to bench Victor Robles and add Yadiel Hernandez into the lineup, the splits for the Nationals get way better.
The Mets can still win this game but how many times do the Mets go down early and then have to claw back late? It seems like it’s been that way all season.
The Nationals should be able to score two runs in the first five innings and we’re getting a solid price here.
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Prediction: Nationals F5 TT Over 1.5 @ -130