Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction & Pick

MLB handicapper Matt Zylbert breaks down his Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers prediction for Monday's mid-afternoon showdown.
Matt Zylbert
Mon, August 30, 9:21 AM EDT

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction & Pick

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Over/Under: 9.5

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Bailey Ober (1-2, 4.06 ERA) vs. Casey Mize (7-6, 3.55 ERA)

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction

Twins vs. Tigers odds

Out of this makeup-game showdown between rookies, Mize is obviously the one that gets far more attention but perhaps bettors need to start tracking Ober more.

The former 12th-round pick got his career out to an inauspicious start, entering the All-Star break with an unflattering 5.45 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his first eight starts.

However, since the Midsummer Classic, Ober’s pitched to the tune of a very respectable 2.78 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven outings, all of which he kept the opposition to three or fewer earned runs.

Not only that, Ober has engineered a pretty 35-6 K/BB ratio within this span, and that’s another notable item in the 6-foot-9 righty’s game: He can rack up the strikeouts while keeping down the walks.

In fact, Ober is registering 4.24 K/BB, which would actually rank him in the top 20 among all Major League starters if he had enough innings under his belt to qualify. Furthermore, he’s punching out 9.44 K/9. That’s always impressive to me from any youngster in their first campaign.

Mize, meanwhile, has continued doing just that — wowing any audience that sees him.

A recent No. 1 overall draft pick (2018), Mize repeatedly reminds the baseball world why he was taken first overall. He’s been so consistent that only four times in 24 assignments for the whole year did Mize yield more than three earned runs.

Being able to lean on the 24-year-old in a relatively high total like 9.5 certainly isn’t common. As a result, we’ll dispatch him for just that in hopes that one of his usual gems can make a difference opposite a fellow young starter that’s making strides.

Pick: UNDER 9.5 (-116)

Leans

Brewers-Giants Under 7.5

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “69-61-9,” +0.67 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Cardinals-Pirates Under 9 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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