Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
- Orioles: Keegan Akin (1-8, 7.26 ERA)
- Blue Jays: Hyun Jin Ryu (12-7, 3.88 ERA)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
No matter how much a team is struggling, the offense wakes up once they face the Orioles.
That’s the case for the Blue Jays, who scored seven runs against the 40-win Orioles last night.
Keegan Akin will take the mound for the Orioles, and he’s riding some hot momentum right now. Akin won his first-ever start for the Orioles and is now 1-8 on the season after finishing seven strong innings against the Angels, allowing just one run on three hits with six strikeouts.
Good for Akin; he got a win. The win was well deserved, but he’s not getting another one tonight.
Akin still has an xFIP of 6.52 in the last 30 days and has struck out 17 percent of batters while walking nine percent of batters. In addition, he’s inducing just 31.5 percent ground balls and has been awful to righties. In his last 74 right-handed at-bats, Akin has allowed a wOBA of .359 and ISO of .200, both below-average numbers for a starter.
The Blue Jays figure to start an entire lineup of right-handed bats, including George Springer, who has been activated off the injured list for the second time this season. Springer has been a massive addition to this offense and could help get the club back on track offensively.
Akin will also help, of course.
The Blue Jays lineup has an ISO of .232 and wOBA of .371 in the last 30 days against lefties. They’re striking out just 18.2 percent of the time and walking 9.6 percent of the time. In addition, Toronto has been able to keep the ball off the ground with just 40.8 percent ground balls and have six of their nine batters hitting consistent hard contact against lefties.
Before Akin’s last start, he had allowed 12 runs in just 12 innings of work. Then, earlier this month, he was coming out of the bullpen because he lost his spot in the rotation due to how poor a job he was doing pitching on the mound.
The Blue Jays are a career 12-for-34 against Akin with an OPS of 1.058 and four home runs, including two from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and one from Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez.
Gurriel Jr. and Bo Bichette have two doubles against Akin, while Marcus Semien and Hernandez have added one double against Akin.
Of the 12 hits the Blue Jays have against Akin, ten went for extra-base hits. So we’ll see plenty of extra-base hits with men on base in this one. Let’s take the Blue Jays over 3 in the first five innings. They’ll need four to cash the ticket, but if the team only scores three, we’ve got insurance, and we’ll get a push instead.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction: Blue Jays Over 3 F5 TT (-121)