Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction & Betting Pick

Lucas Giolito is on the mound for the White Sox tonight. Can he lift the Sox to a win over the Pirates? MLB handicapper Matt Zylbert breaks down the game and gives his pick.
Matt Zylbert
Tue, August 31, 12:03 PM EDT

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction & Betting Pick

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Bryse Wilson (2-5, 5.03 ERA) vs. Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.68 ERA)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction

Pirates vs. White Sox odds

Wilson was unable to capitalize on any of his chances as a member of the Braves rotation but he appears to finally be seizing such an opportunity in Pittsburgh.

That’s exactly what we want while the linesmakers are still offering the fourth-year right-hander in buy-low-type bets, like tonight’s series opener that also features an ace in Giolito, yet has been tagged with a fairly high over/under of 9.

First off, this is the same club whom Giolito no-hit last year and matched a career-high with 13 punch-outs. When he faced the Buccos earlier this season, he wasn’t as dominant as that previous performance but still registered six quality innings and struck out seven. Ke’Bryan Hayes (hand) may also be absent this evening, which would wipe out arguably the best hitter in the Pirates batting order.

That doesn’t bode well for a team that’s scoring the fewest runs per game (3.59) in the Majors. And you couldn’t really ask for Giolito to be in a better rhythm at the moment, as the former first-round draft pick has notably yielded two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts.

As a result, Wilson figures to have some room for error relative to where the total is set. But all of that might not even come into play if the 23-year-old simply maintains what he’s been doing since becoming a Pirate right before the trade deadline — or comes close to matching it.

Wilson has pitched his new teammates into the fifth inning or deeper in all four of his assignments with Pittsburgh, something he failed to do three times in eight outings prior to arriving from Atlanta.

During this span, Wilson’s compiled a 3.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while not allowing more than four runs any time out. Even if he gives up four or five, Giolito still carries.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-115)

Leans

Padres-Diamondbacks Under 8

2021 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “70-61-9,” +1.67 units

Yesterday’s Result: Twins-Tigers Under 9.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Matt Zylbert
@MattZylbert
Zylbert has been writing about baseball over/under bets for nearly a decade, attaining notable success in just about each season. Throughout the last three years, the veteran gambling analyst has amassed a 307-239-25 (56.2%) record on regular season totals while always recommending to flat bet every game for one unit.
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