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Wednesday's Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction features a low team total for the Sox that handicapper Jason Radowitz wants to attack.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Pick

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Probable Pitchers

  • Red Sox: Chris Sale (3-0, 2.35 ERA)
  • Rays: Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 3.46 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Rays odds

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

The Red Sox are still hanging on in the AL Wild Card and will need to find a way to spark their offense moving forward. It’s been a challenge going up against lefties but this team has crushed righties as of late.

Maybe that spark comes tonight.

Drew Rasmussen will take the mound for the Rays. It's been a wild season for Rasmussen, who started the season with Milwaukee and then came to the Rays in the Willy Adames deal as a reliever. As the Rays started losing depth at the starter position, the organization helped transform Rasmussen into a starter.

In his last outing, he went a full five innings against the Phillies, allowing just one run on four hits. He only had one strikeout in that game but still found a way to get the job done. If anything, he’s an average pitcher at best and can absolutely make some mistakes.

Rasmussen has an xFIP of 4.79 in the last 30 days along with a 14.8 percent strikeout rate and 8.2 walk rate. He will induce a high amount of grounders but also has given up 57.4 percent hard contact in those same 30 days.

While the ISO numbers are down, the line drive rate is up along with hard contact. The Red Sox have tons of power in the lineup where if Rasmussen makes one mistake, he’ll pay.

The projected lineup for the Red Sox is hitting a .293 ISO and wOBA of .379. They’re striking out 19 percent of the time and walking 10.8 percent of the time in the last 30 days. Boston has limited ground balls to 38.3 percent against righties as of late and are hitting about 21 percent line drive contact.

Seven of the nine projected batters in the Red Sox lineup are hitting for hard contact. Sometimes hard hit grounders are the death of an inning but other times, they find a hole and create rallys. That’s baseball. Rasmussen has been able to get grounders with guys on but if the ball were an inch either way, it might’ve been a base hit.

The Red Sox are 3-for-20 against Rasmussen but have two extra base hits against him. It’s an extremely small sample size and sometimes getting to see him a couple times helps a team prepare for the next time. The Red Sox now have film to watch and an approach at the plate from watching film.

All we’ll need is a bloop and a blast for the Red Sox first five team total. It’s sitting at 1.5 (-145) and that’s just way too low for a team with crazy home run potential.

I know Rasmussen hasn’t been allowing too many long balls but something’s got to give with his high line drive rate and high hard contact rate within the last 30 days.

Give me the Sox to score two runs in the first five innings

.Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: Red Sox F5 TT Over 1.5 @ -145

Article Author


Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.


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