Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction and Pick

The Royals battle the Indians in a divisional matchup on Thursday. What bets should we look to make?
Jason Radowitz
Thu, September 2, 7:38 AM EDT

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians Game Information

  • Thursday, September 2, 2021 – 8:10 pm EST
  • Kauffman Stadium

Probable Pitchers

  • Indians: Tristan McKenzie (3-5, 4.83 ERA)
  • Royals: Mike Minor (8-11, 5.30 ERA)

Game Odds

  • In order to ensure that you get the best price for your bet, find and compare all the odds for the game right here.

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians Prediction and Pick

The Indians had been a solid offensive team in the month of August and I don’t think that changes in September.

Mike Minor is expected to give it a go for the Royals. He’s 8-11 on the season with a 5.30 ERA. It’s been a rough season for the Royals and Minor. Minor allowed three or more runs in every start in August and gave up at least six hits in each game. He’s been a bit below average recently and could be fatiguing at this point.

The left-hander has an xFIP of 4.49 with low strikeouts and low walks in the last 30 days. He’s not inducing a high amount of grounders at 38 percent and he’s giving up line-drive contact at 22.5 percent.

What’s more eye-popping is the hard contact allowed. In the last 30 days, Minor has allowed 50.7 percent hard contact. Basically, when contact is made, there’s a very solid chance it’s going to be hard contact off Minor.

Against righties, Minor has a wOBA of .369 in his last 30 days and an ISO of .284. He’s also got an ISO of .300 in his last 11 against lefties and has struggled keeping the ball in play.

In his last five starts, Minor has allowed eight home runs. The Indians have showcased plenty of power against lefties this season, including Jose Ramirez, Yu Chang and Austin Hedges, who are all way above average against lefties in the last 30 days.

In that split, Ramirez has an ISO of .405, Chang has a .857 ISO and Hedges has a .304 ISO near the bottom of the order. Granted, it's a tiny sample size, but it’s always good to know that the bottom of an order has potential when you’re betting on a team.

The projected lineup has an ISO of .248 against lefties with a wOBA of .377. They also don’t strike out that much and hit line drives 22.4 percent of the time.

While the Indians lineup doesn’t have a home run versus Minor, they still have three extra-base hits and 13 hits in 54 at-bats against him. Oscar Mercado is batting .500 in eight at-bats while Myles Straw can set the table with a couple hits against Minor as well.

Bobby Bradley, Mercado and Harold Ramirez all have OPS above 1.000 in a short sample size. I’d be surprised if the Indians didn’t hit a couple blasts tonight. Minor has been giving up shot after shot at this point.

At DraftKings, you can get the Indians to score over 1.5 runs in the first five innings at -140. That’s extremely fair value and a solid look against Minor, who, again, has allowed at least two runs in every start since mid-June.

Of course, Minor has reached seven innings in plenty of games and hasn’t allowed two or more runs in just five innings every night, but all you need is a bloop and a blast to secure this ticket. One home run might be all it takes and I like the Indians to hit a couple against Minor.

The Bet

  • MLB Bet: Indians Over 1.5 F5 TT (-140) at DraftKings

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